Как инвесторам заработать на «черной пятнице»

Как инвесторам заработать на «черной пятнице»

Фото: Reuters/Pixstream

«Черная пятница», которая в этом году приходится на 25 ноября, открывает в США сезон рождественских распродаж. В этот период ретейлеры делают до 30% годовой выручки. Чьи акции вырастут благодаря праздничному ажиотажу?

Любители шопинга по всему миру готовятся к «черной пятнице», которая в этом году выпадает на 25 ноября. В этот день стартует традиционный рождественский сезон распродаж, когда крупнейшие торговые сети и онлайн-гипермаркеты назначают значительные скидки на большинство товаров. Особой популярностью «черная пятница» пользуется в США — именно там придумали этот праздник потребления, который, как правило, растягивается на три дня, захватывая выходные.

Ожидается, что в этом году американские покупатели будут еще активнее, чем годом ранее. По оценкам Национальной федерации ретейлеров США (NRF), в 2016 году покупки во время трехдневных распродаж совершат 137,4 млн американцев, что на 3,6% выше прошлогоднего показателя (135,8 млн). Прогнозируется, что за весь сезон распродаж, то есть с ноября по декабрь, покупатели потратят на подарки около $655,8 млрд, то есть заметно больше, чем в 2015 году, когда их расходы составили $626,1 млрд.

В докладе NRF поясняется, что ключевым фактором роста станет увеличение доли молодых покупателей, готовых тратить деньги на гаджеты и модную одежду. Предполагается, что до 86% всех покупок в эту пятницу совершат американцы в возрасте от 18 до 24 лет.

Влияние «черной пятницы» на бизнес торговых сетей и производителей потребительских товаров трудно переоценить. Большинство ретейлеров в США получают до 30% годовой и 40% квартальной выручки именно за счет распродаж в конце ноября, указывает в своем обзоре аналитик исследовательской компании Zacks Investment Research Индрадип Гош. Поэтому покупка акций торговых сетей с сильными фундаментальными показателями может оказаться неплохой предпраздничной инвестицией, отмечает эксперт.

Как инвесторам заработать на «черной пятнице»

Доходные ретейлеры

Главными бенефициарами предстоящего потребительского бума Zacks Investment Research считает сеть магазинов бытовой электроники и гаджетов Best Buy, производителя и дистрибьютора детской одежды The Children's Place, обувного ретейлера DSW, второго по величине дискаунтера США Target Corp и сеть магазинов одежды Nordstrom.

Согласно прогнозу Zacks, в 2016 году компания Best Buy может увеличить прибыль в годовом выражении на 16,7%, The Children's Place — на 40,5%, Target — на 11,3%, а Nordstrom — на 2,1%. У продавца обуви DSW не столь радужные перспективы: по итогам года его прибыль может снизиться на 12%. А вот финансовые результаты ретейлера за четвертый квартал 2016 года должны порадовать инвестора, считают в Zacks, — прибыль компании в этот период должна вырасти на 37%. При этом в следующем финансовом году ожидается рост чистой прибыли DWS на 6,92%.

По итогам прошлогоднего сезона рождественских распродаж (с 24 ноября по 25 декабря) акции Best Buy выросли на 47,8%. За 2015 год они, впрочем, потеряли в цене около 20%, но уже в январе 2016 года возобновили рост и с тех пор подорожали на 64%. Бумаги The Children's Place в прошлый сезон распродаж прибавили в цене 6%. За 2015 год их котировки выросли на 8,6%, а с января 2016 года поднялись еще на 60%.

Акции Target с предыдущей «черной пятницы» до Рождества показали символический рост на 0,4%, но по итогам 2015 года они подорожали на 6,6%. С начала 2016 года котировки незначительно просели — на 0,7%. Капитализация сети магазинов Nordstrom, напротив, снижалась в период рождественского бума: в ноябре—декабре акции компании упали почти на 10%. За 2015 год котировки Nordstrom и вовсе опустились на 55%. С начала текущего года акции компании возобновили рост, поднявшись на 17%. Бумаги обувного ретейлера DSW в прошлогодний сезон распродаж выросли на 3%, а по итогам 2015 года — просели на 32%. В 2016 году они демонстрируют слабый рост — на 3,5% с января.

Выбор российских экспертов

Аналитик ГК «Финам» Вадим Сысоев считает, что на вышеназванных пяти компаниях список бенефициаров «черной пятницы» не исчерпывается. Эксперт советует инвесторам обратить внимание на акции крупнейшей в США сети универмагов Macy's, чья средняя скидка в период распродаж составит 63,4% по сравнению со скидкой в размере 56% в 2015 году. Также он отмечает, что с каждым годом увеличивается доля интернет-покупок во время «черной пятницы». В прошлом году онлайн-продажи выросли на 14,3%, в этот сезон распродаж ожидается их рост еще на 13,3%.

В связи c этим самым логичным выбором для инвестора, говорит Сысоев, станут акции крупнейшего интернет-ретейлера США Amazon.com и онлайн-гипермаркета eBay. «За последние десять лет бумаги Amazon.com в период распродаж с ноября по декабрь росли в девяти случаях из десяти», — поясняет аналитик. Сысоев также выделяет бумаги службы доставки товаров United Parcel Service (UPS), чьи котировки за последние десять лет также показывали положительную динамику в девяти случаях из десяти во время «черной пятницы».

Начальник департамента торговых операций ИК «Фридом Финанс» Игорь Клюшнев добавляет к этому списку акции крупнейшей сети гипермаркетов в мире — Walmart. Эта компания активно развивает сегмент интернет-торговли, что в перспективе позволит ей конкурировать не только с торговыми сетями, но с ведущими онлайн-ретейлерами, подчеркивает финансист. «Недавно Walmart пережила довольно сильную коррекцию. Ее акции снизились с максимума в $87,5 за бумагу до отметки $70. Это хорошая возможность для покупки, потому что в следующем году мы ожидаем рост их цены до $90», — говорит Клюшнев.

Эксперт также советует инвесторам вложиться в биржевой инвестиционный фонд SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), в портфеле которого наиболее ликвидные акции десяти американских ретейлеров. «На этой неделе этот фонд уже прибавил в цене почти 4%. В ближайшее время его бумаги продолжат рост», — отмечает он.

Руководитель учебного центра ПАО «Санкт-Петербургская биржа» Павел Пахомов, в свою очередь, выделяет акции компаний-дискаунтеров — таких как Dollar General. «Это сеть недорогих магазинов, которые работают в 43 американских штатах. Они и в обычное время устраивают большие скидки, а в сезон распродаж их конкурентное преимущество увеличивается», — заключает он. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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