Насколько будут выгодны инвестиции в «народные» ОФЗ

В середине апреля будут выпущены ОФЗ для населения со сроком обращения в три года. Доходность новой бумаги может составить 8,5%, что выше средних ставок по вкладам. Но станут ли «народные» ОФЗ реальной альтернативой им?

В феврале 2017 года на сочинском инвестиционном форуме министр финансов Антон Силуанов анонсировал появление нового инвестиционного продукта — это так называемые «ОФЗ для народа». Выпуск «народных облигаций» запланирован на середину апреля 2017 года. Уполномоченными агентами по размещению и выкупу бумаг назначены Сбербанк и ВТБ24.

Объем первого размещения относительно небольшой — 20 млрд руб., номинал бумаги составит 1 тыс. руб., срок обращения — три года. Купон по облигации будет выплачиваться раз в полгода, при этом в течение трех лет он будет постепенно возрастать с 7,5 до 10,4% годовых. В результате предполагаемая среднегодовая доходность бумаги составит 8,5%. Основной целью выпуска облигаций, согласно Минфину, являются повышение финансовой грамотности населения, а также стимуляция к средне- и долгосрочным сбережениям.

Инвестор сможет приобрести пакет объемом от 30 тыс. до 15 млн руб. — этот диапазон охватывает основную массу депозитных счетов физических лиц. Учитывая достаточно длинный период обращения «ОФЗ для народа» — три года с постепенным увеличением купона и возможностью наследования, можно предположить, что основным покупателем бумаг станут именно те россияне, кто сейчас держит свои вклады в государственном банке (как в более надежном) под низкую доходность.

Но в отличие от депозитов при инвестициях в «народные» облигации стоит учитывать такой фактор, как комиссия агента за сделку покупки/продажи, которая вряд ли будет ниже 1% за операцию. Согласно нашим источникам, она будет установлена в диапазоне 0,5–1,5%. Это вполне реальные значения: в условиях снижения объемов кредитования банки стремятся нарастить прибыль за счет увеличения комиссионных доходов, что видно из отчетности того же Сбербанка за 2016 год. На этом фоне странно было бы надеяться на льготные условия для инвесторов, перемещающих средства из депозитов в ОФЗ.

Однако столь высокая комиссия может свести на нет все выгоды «народных» ОФЗ по сравнению с вкладами. Если банковская комиссия составит хотя бы 1%, а инвестор будет держать облигации до погашения, то реальная годовая доходность бумаги окажется на 0,33 п.п. ниже обещанной —  8,17%. Если же инвестор решит продать облигацию досрочно (например, в год покупки), то ему придется еще раз заплатить агентскую комиссию в 1%, что полностью нивелирует все преимущества в доходности по сравнению с депозитом. Ведь в этом случае реальная доходность «народной» облигации составит всего 6,5% годовых, тогда как средняя ставка по трехлетним вкладам в 15 крупнейших банках сейчас находится на уровне 7,04% годовых.

Если же говорить о квалифицированных инвесторах, которые не ограничиваются размещением средств на депозитах, то им «народные» облигации, скорее всего, не будут интересны. Эти люди подкованы в инвестиционных вопросах, и они в курсе о десятках выпусков ОФЗ на Московской бирже. К их услугам бумаги с самыми разными сроками погашения и доходностью от 8% по длинным выпускам (со сроком обращения в десять лет) до 10% годовых по коротким (срок обращения — до года).

По этим облигациям нет ограничений по реализации (купля-продажа происходит на бирже с неограниченным кругом контрагентов), а комиссии брокеров, в том числе банков, предоставляющих доступ к этому рынку, составляют не более 0,1%. Таким образом, классические ОФЗ выглядят более выгодным вариантом для инвестиций по сравнению как с «народными» облигациями, так и с депозитами.

Подводя итог, можно рекомендовать владельцам депозитов и всем потенциальным покупателям ознакомиться в уполномоченных банках с существенными условиями размещения. В первую очередь, стоит обратить особое внимание на размер комиссии и график размещения — он позволит понять, будет ли возможность докупить эти бумаги в будущем, если они и впрямь окажутся выгодными, а также на сумму купонов.

В «народные» ОФЗ можно смело инвестировать в случае, если комиссии вдруг окажутся умеренными — до 0,1%. При этом вполне возможно, что комиссия первичного размещения «народных» ОФЗ будет привлекательно низкой, а комиссии вторичного оборота значительно больше — читайте мелкий шрифт, берите с собой лупу. Если же комиссия агента будет существенно больше 0,1% за сделку, то имеет смысл купить классические ОФЗ с более высокой доходностью на Московской бирже.

Для примера можно рекомендовать выпуск ОФЗ 24018 с погашением в конце декабря 2017 года и переменным купоном, привязанным к ставке рефинансирования ЦБ РФ (5,46% купон на ближайшие полгода, текущая доходность 9,5%) и выпуск 26210 с погашением в конце 2019 года и доходностью 8,3%. Общие рекомендации — выбирать для покупки облигации с большим купоном и котировкой выше номинала, чтобы избежать уплаты налога на курсовую разницу при погашении по номиналу. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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