Серийные инвестиции: как заработать на популярных сериалах

Серийные инвестиции: как заработать на популярных сериалах

Фото: кадр из сериала «Игра престолов»

На канале Starz начался показ сериала «Американские боги», а в течение года выйдут новые сезоны других популярных сериалов, таких как «Игры престолов» и «Ходячие мертвецы». Можно ли заработать на сериаломании?

30 апреля стартовал показ первого сезона «Американских богов» — сериала, основанного на романе Нила Геймана. О том, что книгой заинтересовался канал HBO, стало известно в 2011 году, позже Нил Гейман подтвердил эти слухи. Премьера была запланирована на конец 2013 года, однако в итоге канал отказался от проекта. В 2014 году о начале работы над сериалом заявил канал Starz, который с 2016 года принадлежит компании Lionsgate. Премьера «Американских богов» на телеканале собрала аудиторию в 975 тыс. человек, превзойдя дебютные показатели других популярных проектов Starz — «Власть в ночном городе» (в оригинале — Power) и «Черные паруса».

Выход новых сезонов известных сериалов может сказаться на котировках компаний, производящих или транслирующих телешоу, отмечают опрошенные РБК эксперты. «Например, объявление о новых сезонах «Карточного домика» очень позитивно влияет на котировки Netflix, который этот сериал производит и показывает», — говорит управляющий партнер United Traders Анатолий Радченко. После публикации новости о продлении сериала на пятый сезон акции Netflix за неделю выросли более чем на 5%, до $87,4. А после объявления о четвертом сезоне в 2015 году рост стоимости бумаг потокового сервиса превысил 25%.

Успех отдельного фильма или сериала способен повлиять и на динамику акций крупных медиаконцернов, для которых производство или трансляция видеоконтента — лишь одно из направлений бизнеса, говорит начальник департамента торговых операций ИК «Фридом Финанс» Игорь Клюшнев. Примером таких компаний-гигантов являются CBS Corporation, Time Warner, 21st Century Fox и Lionsgate. Так, после премьеры «Голодных игр» в 2012 году акции Lionsgate показали резкий рост почти на 10%. При этом если от удачной премьеры фильма выиграют студии, которые его снимали, то в случае с сериалами выгоду получит скорее транслирующий их канал, считает финансист. «Каналу успешный сериал позволит привлечь большую аудиторию, что дает основания повысить цену на рекламу», — поясняет Клюшнев.

Впрочем, на рынке не так много публичных компаний, чей бизнес был бы тесно связан с производством сериалов, поэтому долгосрочного влияния на их котировки успех сериала не окажет, предупреждает управляющий активами УК БКС Никита Емельянов. «Если брать выручку крупных компаний, то на производство сериалов приходятся доли процента», — говорит он. Единственное исключение — компания Netflix, у которой производство и трансляция сериалов — это значительная часть бизнеса, отмечает он.

Серийные инвестиции: как заработать на популярных сериалах

Как выбирать акции

Инвесторам, желающим заработать на сериаломании, стоит в первую очередь следить за графиком премьер, говорит Емельянов из БКС. Часто бывает, что компания снимает потенциально успешный сериал, один эпизод которого обходится в десятки миллионов долларов. Когда от компании ожидается несколько таких премьер, то на этом фоне ее акции могут подорожать, рассказывает он. Встречаются, правда, и исключения: несколько лет назад CBS анонсировал перезапуск сериала «Звездный путь», но ажиотажа у инвесторов эта новость не вызвала, приводит пример Емельянов.

Анатолий Радченко из United Traders советует инвесторам не ограничиваться бумагой одного производителя сериала — лучше составить целый портфель из таких акций. В него можно включить как рискованные (но высокодоходные) бумаги, так и акции со стабильной динамикой и более скромной доходностью.

«В этом секторе есть очень надежные бумаги, а есть более рискованные, поэтому можно составить портфель из акций с фиксированными дивидендными выплатами и из более рискованных, но потенциально доходных», — поясняет он. К примеру, 90% портфеля можно отвести на акции крупных медиакорпораций вроде Time Warner, The Walt Disney Company, Comcast Corporation и CBS Corporation, а на оставшиеся деньги купить бумаги Netflix.

Инвесторам, которые присматриваются к этому сектору, также нужно следить за сделками по слиянию и поглощению, говорит финансист. Некоторое время назад на рынке ходили слухи о том, что корпорация Disney собирается купить Netflix. «Компания сейчас убыточна и при этом продолжает тратить много денег. Если так будет продолжаться, у Netflix не хватит денег на экспансию и на производство дорогого контента», — рассказывает он. По мнению Радченко, если у Netflix возникнут реальные проблемы, то в этот момент он и будет поглощен компанией Disney. Это обязательно надо учитывать при покупке акций Netflix.

Еще один параметр, за которым стоит следить инвесторам, — это количество подписчиков. Компании, владеющие кабельными каналами или потоковыми сервисами, всегда публикуют эти данные вместе с отчетностью, говорит Радченко. «Компании пытаются подключить людей со всего мира, чтобы они платили за подписку, — это самый важный доход для тех, кто транслирует видеоконтент», — говорит он. Руководитель аналитического центра Санкт-Петербургской биржи Павел Пахомов, в свою очередь, убежден, что для таких компаний количество подписчиков даже важнее, чем выручка или прибыль на акцию. Поэтому если в своей отчетности медиаконцерн сообщает о сокращении аудитории или замедлении ее роста — для инвестора это серьезный повод насторожиться.

Основные риски

На котировки акций компаний-производителей сериалов особенно сильно влияют данные о количестве зрителей того или иного телешоу, предупреждают эксперты, опрошенные РБК. От Netflix, например, инвесторы всё время ждут приятных сюрпризов, говорит Радченко из United Traders. Когда их ожидания не оправдываются, котировки видеосервиса показывают резкую коррекцию.

Также одним из главных рисков для производителей сериалов и телеканалов является провал в прокате, отмечает Никита Емельянов из УК БКС. Однако неудачный сериал вряд ли поставит компанию на грань банкротства, как это бывает со студиями, чьи фильмы не собирают кассу, добавляет он. Риск будет более значительным, если студия продолжит снимать дорогостоящие и невостребованные у аудитории сериалы. Пока таких историй на рынке не было, уточняет Емельянов.

В целом выбор у инвесторов не очень большой, резюмирует финансист. Возможностей найти интересные недооцененные бумаги становится всё меньше — за последние несколько лет конкуренция на рынке значительно выросла, так как производство дорогостоящих сериалов поставлено на поток. Кроме того, кабельные сети теряют зрителей — люди всё чаще уходят в интернет. «А компаний, которые развивают это направление, совсем немного: это Netflix, Amazon и Disney», — заключает Емельянов. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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596 комментариев

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