Сезон тревоги: в какие активы инвестировать во втором квартале

Сезон тревоги: в какие активы инвестировать во втором квартале

Фото: Константин Юганов / Lori

В какие активы лучше всего инвестировать во втором квартале этого года? По просьбе РБК на этот вопрос ответили финансовые аналитики и портфельные управляющие

С начала года индекс ММВБ снизился на 8,58%, а курс рубля укрепился на 8,04% к доллару и на 5,34% — к евро. Усилению позиций российской валюты не помешали даже регулярные интервенции Минфина с февраля этого года, а также ужесточение монетарной политики в США и снижение ключевой ставки Банка России в марте. Опрошенные РБК эксперты связывают рост курса рубля с активным применением стратегий carry trade (игры на разнице процентных ставок) на валютном рынке и улучшением динамики цен на нефть. С начала года нефть марки Brent подорожала на 2,04%, до $54,36 за баррель.

Во втором квартале на финансовые рынки будет влиять сложившаяся неопределенность, связанная с президентскими выборами в Европе, процедурой выхода Великобритании из Евросоюза и итогами политики Трампа, отмечают опрошенные финансисты. Также, по их мнению, в этот период Федрезерв США продолжит постепенное повышение процентных ставок, тогда как Банк России будет смягчать монетарную политику, снижая ключевую ставку. В этих условиях инвесторы смогут найти привлекательные точки входа в акции и облигации, но им не стоит забывать и про защитные активы — золото, швейцарский франк и некоторые ценные бумаги, следует из опроса экспертов.

Акции

Среди акций во втором квартале стоит обратить особое внимание на бумаги компаний, выплачивающих щедрые дивиденды, говорит портфельный управляющий ФГ «Финам» Алексей Белкин. Он отметил, что большинство госкомпаний пока не выплачивают акционерам установленный законом минимум в 50% от чистой прибыли, однако в скором времени ситуация может измениться. В частности, эксперт ожидает проведения обещанного еще в марте заседания правительства по этому вопросу. Пока Белкин рекомендует следить за голубыми фишками российского рынка, среди которых немало дивидендных бумаг. Директор по инвестициям «Универ Капитала» Дмитрий Александров уточняет, что неплохой инвестиционной идеей в этом свете выглядят акции «Газпрома». Их цена находится на исторически низких уровнях, а дивидендная доходность оценивается почти в 9%. «Газпром» — единственная госкомпания, которая платит дивиденды сейчас и точно будет платить их потом», — заключает финансист. Также Александров выделяет акции «Аэрофлота», ФСК и АЛРОСА.

На американском рынке во втором квартале также будут привлекательные активы для покупки. По словам управляющего активами УК БКС Никиты Емельянова, из-за вероятного повышения процентной ставки ФРС в апреле—мае на рынке складываются неплохие условия для долгосрочных инвестиций в долларовые активы. «Если у инвестора нет возможностей и временных ресурсов изучать рынок, то самый лучший вариант — это биржевой инвестиционный фонд (ETF) на индекс. Мне больше всего нравится текущая ситуация с индикатором NASDAQ, но S&P 500 тоже выглядит привлекательно», — говорит эксперт. С начала года индекс NASDAQ вырос на 8,02%, до 5864,48 пункта, а S&P 500 — на 4,21%, до 23 522,95 пункта. Одним из наиболее известных ETF на индикатор NASDAQ является PowerShares QQQ — с начала года его бумаги подорожали на 10,4%, а среди биржевых фондов на S&P 500 — SPDR S&P 500 ETF, который прибавил в цене 4,24%.

Облигации

В конце марта Госдума и Совет Федерации освободили частных инвесторов от уплаты НДФЛ на купонный доход по корпоративным облигациям, выпущенным в период с 1 января 2017 года по 31 декабря 2020 года. В связи с этим реальная доходность долговых бумаг, выпущенных после 1 января 2017 года, резко повысилась. Пока список облигаций, подходящих под критерии нового закона, остается более чем скромным. В настоящее время на Московской бирже торгуются только 14–15 ликвидных выпусков облигаций из числа эмитированных в 2017 году. По мнению главного аналитика по долговым рынкам БК «Регион» Александра Ермака, среди них стоит обратить внимание на долговые бумаги «Транснефти» («Траснефть БО-001Р-05»), МТС («МТС 001Р-01») и ГТЛК («ГТЛК 001Р-03»)

Ведущий специалист отдела доверительного управления «КИТ Финанс Брокер» Владимир Капустянский считает, что помимо новых корпоративных облигаций стоит присмотреться к шестому выпуску бумаг «Газпром Капитала», третьему выпуску банка «Открытие» и первому выпуску группы ПИК. Кроме того, эксперт рекомендует длинные инвестиции в ОФЗ серий 26212 и 26216. В свою очередь, портфельный управляющий ФГ «Финам» Алексей Белкин рекомендует краткосрочные инвестиции в бумаги Внешэкономбанка и компании «Полюс Золото». По его мнению, во втором квартале вкладываться в долгие облигации не разумно.

Валюта

Большинство опрошенных РБК экспертов сошлись во мнении, что продолжительное укрепление рубля во втором квартале маловероятно. Этому будет способствовать сезонный фактор (рубль растет в начале года и показывает более слабую динамику весной) и рост рублевой ликвидности на рынке, отмечает заместитель генерального директора по инвестиционному анализу ИК «Церих Кэпитал Менеджмент» Андрей Верников.​ Он прогнозирует курс рубля к лету на уровне 61 руб./долл. Впрочем, руководитель центра макроэкономического анализа Альфа-банка Наталья Орлова отмечает, что риторика президента США Дональда Трампа и представителей Федрезерва демонстрирует заинтересованность в более слабом долларе, так что значительного укрепления американской валюты ожидать не стоит.

Главный эксперт центра экономического прогнозирования Газпромбанка Егор Сусин добавляет, что сейчас пришло время для краткосрочных инвестиций в евро. Также, по словам аналитика, инвестору стоит обратить внимание на британский фунт. Из-за последовавшего за Brexit обвала эта валюта торгуется на привлекательных ценовых уровнях и может стать хорошей долгосрочной инвестицией, однако ее дальнейшая динамика упирается в отношения Великобритании и ЕС после выхода страны из Евросоюза, говорит Сусин. Еще одной хорошей долгосрочной инвестицией он считает покупку швейцарского франка, который, по мнению аналитика, остается недооцененным.

Золото

Эксперты предупреждают, что во втором квартале финансовые рынки могут столкнуться с чередой потрясений: в апреле состоятся президентские выборы во Франции, в июне — парламентские в Италии, а в сентябре будут выбирать членов бундестага в Германии. Усиление позиций социал-демократов в Германии и растущая популярность кандидата Марин Ле Пен во Франции вызывают тревогу у участников рынка. Налоговые реформы Дональда Трампа и его противостояние торговой политике Китая, а также последствия Brexit добавляют неопределенности на рынке, говорит старший аналитик «Альпари» Роман Ткачук.

По его словам, на этом фоне возрастает спрос за защитные активы, в том числе на золото. Эксперт советует держать от 10 до 30% сбережений в золоте. «Для хеджирования биржевых рисков предпочтительным вариантом являются слитки и инвестиционные монеты (последние не облагаются НДС и достаточно ликвидны). Покупая золото через биржевые инструменты (фьючерс или акции), нужно понимать, что вы принимаете на себя риски сбоя работы биржи», — рассказывает эксперт.

В настоящее время золото торгуется около отметки $1248,50 за унцию, однако Верников из «Церих Кэпитал Менеджмент» прогнозирует рост стоимости металла до $1310 за унцию во втором квартале. Не исключает подъема до уровня $1300–1350 за унцию до конца мая и Ткачук из «Альпари». Более смелый прогноз дает вице-президент «Золотого монетного дома» Алексей Вязовский: по его оценкам, золото подорожает до $1400 за унцию. Эксперт связывает это с возможным усилением геополитических рисков: возвращение Сирии и Украины в повестку дня, а также распространение политики отрицательных процентных ставок в мире. По версии аналитиков лондонской консультационной компании GFMS, среднегодовая цена на унцию золота в 2017 году составит $1259 за унцию. При этом они считают, что в более долгосрочной перспективе цены на золото продолжат расти, несмотря на препятствие в виде растущих ставок ФРС США. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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