Рост цен на машины подстегнул автокредитование

Рост цен на машины подстегнул автокредитование

Фото:
Олег Харсеев /
Коммерсантъ

В начале года банки зафиксировали существенный рост выдачи автокредитов по сравнению с прошлым годом. При этом в общем объеме продаж автомобилей, который в первом квартале показал признаки восстановления впервые за четыре года, растет доля кредитных продаж — с 38% до 45% (год к году). Чаще использовать кредитные средства граждане вынуждены из-за роста цен на машины, приобрести которые в условиях снижения реальных доходов без помощи банков становится все труднее.

Согласно данным Национального бюро кредитных историй (НБКИ, входит в топ-3 БКИ), в первом квартале совокупный объем выданных банками автокредитов составил 87 млрд руб., что на 37% больше, чем годом ранее. Число проданных в кредит автомобилей в январе—марте увеличилось по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года на 23,6%, до 126,3 тыс. шт. При этом, согласно совместным данным НБКИ и аналитического агентства «Автостат», доля кредитных продаж автомобилей составила в первом квартале текущего года 45% против 38% годом ранее.

Примечательно, что доля кредитных продаж растет на фоне восстановления авторынка в целом. По данным Ассоциации европейского бизнеса (АЕБ), рынок автопродаж показал позитивный результат за квартал впервые за четыре года. Продажи легковых и легких коммерческих автомобилей выросли на 1%, до 322,5 тыс. машин (см. «Ъ» от 11 апреля). Что касается роста доли кредитных автомобилей в структуре рынка, то он во многом обусловлен реализацией госпрограммы льготного автокредитования, действие которой было продлено и на 2017 год, отмечает исполнительный директор «Автостата» Сергей Удалов.

Банкиры же считают, что рост выдачи кредитов на приобретение автомобилей обусловлен в том числе увеличением их цены. Согласно оценкам «Автостата», средняя цена нового легкового автомобиля в России составила в 2016 году 1,4 млн руб., что на 15% больше, чем годом ранее. В Юникредит-банке сообщили, что объемы автокредитования банка выросли в первом квартале 2017 года на 78% (примерно до 7 млрд руб.) по сравнению с первым кварталом 2016 года. «Это в основном обусловлено ростом стоимости автомобилей,— признает руководитель розничного блока Юникредит-банка Иван Матвеев.— Купить машину за наличные гражданам стало значительно сложнее». На объем выдачи влияет изменение цен на автомобили, соглашается старший вице-президент ВТБ 24 Алексей Токарев. По его словам, у ВТБ 24 в первом квартале 2017 года (по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года) объем выдачи вырос примерно на 50%.

Участники рынка ожидают сохранения позитивной динамики. «Можно говорить о том, что началось восстановление рынка автокредитования. В этом году мы прогнозируем двукратное увеличение темпа прироста продаж»,— отмечает Алексей Токарев. По словам Ивана Матвеева, вероятность того, что рынок прошел дно, высокая. Однако сильного роста по итогам 2017 года не ожидается, говорит он.

По данным аналитического агентства Frank Research Group, совокупный портфель автокредитов сокращается с 2013 года, по итогам которого он достиг 962 млрд руб., объем выдачи в 2013 году составил 633,7 млрд руб. Немного более скромные результаты были в 2014 году, объем портфеля автокредитов на конец года составил 933 млрд руб., за год были выданы автокредиты на сумму 442,7 млрд руб. Учитывая, что автокредиты, как правило, выдаются на срок от двух до пяти лет, сейчас происходит активное погашение кредитов, выданных в 2013-2014 годах. Новые выдачи не перекрывают объемов погашения, в результате портфель сокращается. По итогам прошлого года он снизился до 682 млрд руб.

Сможет ли рынок автокредитов набрать прежнюю скорость — вопрос. По оценкам экспертов, если рост и будет, то номинальный — около 1%. «Если говорить о факторах, продолжающих сдерживать развитие не только автокредитования, но и всего авторынка, то, по нашему мнению, главным из них по-прежнему остается снижение реальных доходов населения»,— заключает гендиректор НБКИ Александр Викулин. По данным Росстата, реальные доходы населения снижаются три года подряд. В 2016 году они упали на 5,9% по сравнению с 2015 годом. В текущем году негативный тренд сохранился: по данным Росстата за март 2017 года, сокращение доходов населения в реальном выражении составило 2,5% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года.

Источник: kommersant.ru

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