Центробанк понизил ключевую ставку до 8,5%: что будет с рублем

Центробанк понизил ключевую ставку до 8,5%: что будет с рублем

Теперь «деревянный» может ослабеть, а инфляция — ускориться

Центробанк понизил ключевую ставку до 8,5%: что будет с рублем
фото: Геннадий Черкасов

Анна Кокорева, замдиректора аналитического департамента «Альпари»:

Мы ожидали подобного снижения процентной ставки в связи с сокращением уровня инфляции до 3,3% и стабильным курсом рубля по отношению к иностранным валютам. Данное решение регулятора будет нести позитивный эффект для населения и бизнеса, так как ставки по кредитам продолжат снижаться. Более дешевые заемные средства позволят активнее развиваться промышленности и повысят спрос на потребительские кредиты и ипотеку среди граждан. Однако снижение ставки приведет также к сокращению ставок по депозитам. Рубль достаточно устойчив, поэтому решение ЦБ не должно повлечь за собой серьезного ослабления нацвалюты и роста цен. Инфляционные колебания возможны, но в сентябре в силу вступают сезонные факторы, такие как сбор урожая. Традиционно в этот период времени определенные продукты и товары падают в цене, что позволяет инфляции держаться на низком уровне. К началу октября годовой показатель инфляции будет находиться в диапазоне 3,3 — 3,4%. Следующие две недели курс доллара останется в коридоре 56-58 рублей, а евро едва достигнет 70 рублей.

Ирина Рогова, аналитик ГК Forex Club:

Снижение ставки Банком России было абсолютно оправданно. В августе инфляция в годовом выражении снизилась до 3,3%, что уже существенно ниже целевого уровня, установленного регулятором на конец года (4%). Однако, в этих условиях регулятор не пошел на более резкое снижение ставки — ведь если предпринять более решительные шаги, инфляция, которая отчасти сдерживается и стабильностью рубля может ускориться. А ЦБ РФ ставит себе целью удержание инфляционных ожиданий на низком уровне в течение длительного времени. В целом, подобный шаг может быть позитивен для реального сектора экономики, поскольку кредиты станут чуть дешевле. Выиграть от такого шага регулятора могут и потребители, которые планируют крупные покупки в кредит. Например, ставки по ипотеке уже были понижены. А снижение ключевой ставки может подтолкнуть банки к дальнейшему их сокращению. Но с другой стороны, снижение ставки может все же дать пусть небольшой, но импульс для ослабления рубля и, следовательно, ускорить инфляцию. А это, в свою очередь, способно сказаться на состоянии реальных доходов населения. Они и так продолжают падать третий год подряд.

Сергей Козловский, руководитель аналитического отдела Grand Capital:

Банк России снизит ключевую ставку, о чем, собственно, сообщила ранее глава регулятора Эльвира Набиуллина. Открытым оставался лишь вопрос об уровне снижения ставки — теперь и он решен: 0,5 процентных пункта. Текущий уровень инфляции позволил регулятору пойти на столь радикальное (по его меркам) снижение — до 8,5%. Видимо, учитывалось, что в августе мы и вовсе стали свидетелями дефляции, чего не было уже много лет. Снижение ключевой ставки приведет прежде всего к продолжению уменьшения ставок по депозитам, что в свою очередь заставит население искать альтернативу банковским вкладам, и должно вызвать интерес к финансовым рынкам, как более доходному способу инвестирования. Привлечение денег домохозяйств на финансовый рынок является положительным моментом для экономики страны. Не менее положительным следствием сегодняшнего решения по ключевой ставке станет ожидаемое снижение кредитных ставок как для бизнеса, так и для населения.

Снижение ставки назрело, оно обусловлено улучшением состояния отечественной экономики, считает Георгий Ващенко, начальник управления ИК «Фридом Финанс». Он уверен в том, что снижение ключевой ставки в этих условиях стимулирует производство и потребление, поддержит начавшийся экономический рост. Действительно, значимого понижения ставки уже заждались российские промышленники, которые жалуются на «дорогие» заемные деньги, тормозящие развитие бизнеса в стране. Теперь реальному сектору, по идее, будет легче расти и развиваться.

Улучшатся возможности для «жизни взаймы» и для обычных граждан: проценты по кредитам в банках, включая ипотечные, должны понизиться вслед за ключевой ставкой. Однако снижение ставки приведет также к понижению процентов по депозитам. Да и с потенциальным ускорением экономического роста в стране не все так однозначно. «Сейчас экономический рост быстро затухает: в июле и августе динамика ВВП составила около 2% год к году против 3,5% в мае и 2,9% в июне. Таким образом, жесткая монетарная политика может заглушить восстановительный экономический рост из-за спада потребительского спроса», — утверждает Тимур Нигматуллин, аналитик «Открытие Брокер».

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Источник: mk.ru

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