«Люди будут ждать конца года»: сверхоптимистичный прогноз экономразвития позабавил Путина

«Люди будут ждать конца года»: сверхоптимистичный прогноз экономразвития позабавил Путина

Министр экономики и глава Минпромторга отчитались за рост ВВП, инфляцию и производство автомобилей

"Люди будут ждать конца года": сверхоптимистичный прогноз экономразвития позабавил Путина
фото: kremlin.ru

Выбор пал на этих двух министров не случайно. Что касается прогнозов по экономическому росту, то здесь их взгляды совпадают. «Сегодня нет ваших оппонентов, потому что, как правило, вы выступаете в тандеме по этим вопросам», — заявил Путин, приветствуя чиновников. Причем президент изначально сам задал тон беседе. Как утверждает Путин, российская экономика вышла на траекторию «достаточно устойчивого роста». Неудивительно, что министры охотно подхватили слова главы государства. Оба и без того с регулярной периодичностью рапортуют о положительных результатах и оптимистично настроены на будущее. В числе подтверждений указывают на худо-бедно, но все же наметившийся рост ВПП, а также инфляцию, которую, справедливости ради надо сказать, правительству и ЦБ удалось обуздать. Именно на этих двух показателях заострил внимание Максим Орешкин. По его данным, рост ВВП в августе составил 2,3%, а инфляция опустилась до 3,1%, что позволяет снижать ключевую ставку ЦБ. В свою очередь это приведет к наращиваю кредитной активности в банковской сфере. В частности, как заявил глава Минэкономразвития, в конце 2017 года ставки по ипотеке могут опуститься с нынешних 11% даже ниже 10%.

Столь оптимистичный прогноз Орешкина даже вызвал улыбку на лице главы государства. «Сейчас вы об этом сказали, люди будут ждать окончания года», — предупредил президент.

Судя по заявлениям, которые сделал министр экономики, нам действительно есть чего ждать. Впрочем, не отставал от Орешкина и его коллега из Минпромторга Денис Мантуров. По его словам, сейчас позитивные показатели достигнуты в сфере автомобильной промышленности. Среди лидеров роста — производители вагонов, сельхозтехники, фармацевты. «В целом все секторы чувствуют развитие. Единственное, по металлургии до сих пор еще пока не восстановились после кризиса», — сказал Мантуров. Вместе с тем он выразил надежду, что восстановление показателей в сфере строительства подтолкнет и развитие в металлургическом секторе.

Однако эксперты скептически относятся к прогнозам Минэкономразвития и Минпромторга. По данным Центра развития НИУ ВШЭ, в первом полугодии 2017 года рост отечественного ВВП был обусловлен в основном ценами на нефть. Однако такого фактора, как стоимость «черного золота», надолго не хватит: он практически уже исчерпан и слабо зависит от усилий властей.

Кроме того, по их словам, реальное состояние отечественной экономики отражают кошельки рядовых россиян, которые, увы, только «худеют». По данным Росстата, располагаемые денежные доходы населения (доходы за вычетом обязательных платежей, скорректированные на инфляцию) падают четвертый год подряд. В 2016 году они сократились на 5,9% в реальном выражении, в 2015‑м — на 3,2%, в 2014‑м снижение составило 0,7%.

Не стал исключением и 2017 год. За восемь месяцев с начала года доходы наших сограждан уменьшились на 1,2% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом 2016 года. Как ранее отметил бывший министр финансов Алексей Кудрин, наша страна, может, и вышла из рецессии, но по-прежнему остается «проблема падения жизненного уровня россиян, проблема промышленности». «Поэтому мы не можем сказать, что мы все вышли из кризиса. Мы из кризиса выходим. Но рецессию мы преодолели. Выходом из кризиса можно будет считать момент, когда целый год будут расти доходы населения», — отмечает Кудрин.

Источник: mk.ru

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