По самые помидоры: Анкара пригрозила закрыть «Турецкий поток»

По самые помидоры: Анкара пригрозила закрыть «Турецкий поток»

Газопровод из России может стать новым объектом санкций Эрдогана

По самые помидоры: Анкара пригрозила закрыть «Турецкий поток»
фото: Алексей Меринов

Томаты остались единственным продуктом турецкого агропрома, в отношении которого сохраняются российские ограничения на импорт. Ранее аналогичным санкциям подвергалась практически вся линейка сельхозпродуктов из этой страны, однако геополитические отношения между Москвой и Анкарой потеплели, поэтому тотальное эмбарго было отменено. Судьбу же помидорного эмбарго, по словам вице-премьера Аркадия Дворковича, должны были решить на Измирской международной ярмарке 18 августа.

В ее преддверии министр Ткачев неожиданно заявил, что «Россия не готова к импорту томатов из Турции и не будет его возобновлять». По его словам, с 2014 по 2017 год производство овощей в нашей стране увеличилось примерно на треть. Министр уверен, что отечественные аграрии говоры сами начать масштабные поставки своей продукции за границу.

Пассаж был услышан в Анкаре. В ответ министр экономики Турции Нихат Зейбекчи заявил, что давление бизнеса может вынудить правительство его страны ввести ответные санкции в отношении России. Правда, при этом он выразил надежду, что позиция Москвы может измениться в лучшую сторону после предстоящих российско-турецких переговоров в Измире.

Что имел в виду Зейбекчи, говоря об ответных санкциях? По мнению финансового аналитика Gerchik&Co Виктора Макеева (однофамилец автора статьи. — «МК»), «Турции наиболее уместно будет сейчас ответить симметричными мерами: контрсанкциями аналогичного характера». Другими словами, запретом за экспорт некоторых товаров. Помимо энергоресурсов основной статьей российского экспорта в Турцию является металлургическая продукция: в год мы поставляем ее более чем на $400 млн. Также экспортируются товары лесопромышленных предприятий, зерно и подсолнечное масло.

Экспорт горячекатаного проката, который используется на большинстве турецких промышленных предприятий, Анкара запрещать не будет — аналогичная продукция из Европы гораздо дороже, а из Китая — намного хуже по качеству. Закупку энергоресурсов в нынешнем объеме и товары российского леспромхоза также не стоит рассматривать в качестве объекта для эмбарго — стоимость импорта из других стран выше на 20–30%. С пшеницей могут возникнуть проблемы. Анкара уже грозила подобными мерами ранее — увеличить экспортные пошлины на российские зерновые. Но до конкретной точки Турция свою угрозу не довела, видимо, подсчитав убытки от такого решения.

Тем не менее в запасе у Анкары остается «запрещенный прием». По словам замдиректора аналитического департамента «Альпари» Анны Кокоревой, у Турции достаточно рычагов давления на Россию с помощью «Турецкого потока» — строящегося газопровода в направлении этой страны и считающегося одним из маршрутов, позволяющих «Газпрому» сократить транзит «голубого топлива» через Украину. «Хотя ряд соглашений подписан и строительство уже идет, Турция всегда может вмешаться в этот процесс», — полагает эксперт.

Пока создание этой магистрали идет полным ходом. Российские инвестиции в «Турецкий поток» в 2017 году должны увеличиться до 42 млрд рублей против 23,5 млрд в 2016-м. Его две нитки, каждая по 15 млрд кубометров, позволят закрыть не только потребление Турции, но и нарастить экспорт «Газпрома» в Западную Европу. Пригрозив в очередной раз прикрыть этот проект, Анкара сильно навредит Москве, которая продолжает претендовать на место главного поставщика топлива в страны Старого Света.

Однако, как полагает старший аналитик ИК «Фридом Финанс» Богдан Зварич, данный шаг со стороны Турции маловероятен. «Если Анкара попытается отказаться от «европейской» трубы, то это поставит под сомнение строительство первой нитки, ориентированной на саму Турцию, что невыгодно правительству и местным бизнесменам», — утверждает эксперт.

Санкции . Хроника событий

Источник: mk.ru

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