Похороны рубля: правительство утратило контроль над курсом

Похороны рубля: правительство утратило контроль над курсом

Может, вообще отказаться от действия доллара в России?

Похороны рубля: правительство утратило контроль над курсом
фото: Алексей Меринов

С середины мая доллар подорожал почти на пять рублей. Одни, преимущественно представители госаппарата, этого не заметили. Другие — главным образом, население, копившее деньги на отпуск, — ощутили и возмутились. Примерно половина наших соотечественников, открыв кошелек, прослезились и предпочли провести отпуск дома — на привычный «ол инклюзив» им не хватает. Реальная заработная плата, как утверждает официальная статистика, растет, но только дают эти деньги не всем и не сразу. Даже у госпредприятий возникают проблемы с выплатой окладов. Причина простая — у правительства не хватает денег в казне. Пусть дефицит бюджета в этом году снижен с 3,2% до 2,1% ВВП, это все равно нешуточная сумма — примерно 2 трлн рублей.

Закрывать эти дыры чиновники стараются испытанным способом — обрушением курса рубля. Министры экономического блока уже не раз говорили о необходимости девальвации нацвалюты на 10% — «деревянный», по их мнению, чрезвычайно переоценен, и рост его стоимости только вредит экономике.

Складывается такое впечатление, что среди министров происходит раскол. Глава Минэнерго Александр Новак уверен в росте стоимости нефти в третьем квартале этого года. Он рассчитывает на рост спроса на «черное золото», которое приведет к положительной ценовой конъюнктуре.

Говорят, надежда умирает последней. В какую очередь должны отойти в мир иной прогнозы чиновников? Лично мне вспоминаются слова экс-главы Минэкономразвития Алексея Улюкаева, сказанные за несколько лет до его обвинения в вымогательстве взятки. На вопрос о будущем рубля, его курсе, ценах на нефть он ответил вполне убедительно и корректно. Однако, чуть помедлив, как в пьесах российских классиков, словно про себя, в сторону, заметил, что его прогнозы никогда не сбываются и делать на них ставку не стоит.

Сейчас складывается такая ситуация, когда прагматизм и действительность голосуют за обратное — то есть в пользу низких нефтяных котировок. Ни ОПЕК, ни другие добывающие государства, разделяющие мнение о стабилизации цен на баррель за счет сокращения производства сырья, не в состоянии повлиять на рыночную диспозицию. Партнеры по этому меморандуму обязались снизить добычу на 1,8 млн баррелей в день. Но только в коня ли этот корм будет? Не все производители «черного золота» готовы пойти на такие меры. В частности, Ливия, освобожденная от этих условий, с 2015 году нарастила добычу с 300 тыс. до 800 тыс. баррелей в сутки.

Не отстает и Иран, на который также не распространяются условия меморандума ОПЕК. Тегеран уже практически догнал позиции в 4 млн баррелей в сутки, которыми он располагал до принятия в его отношении западных санкций, и угрожает нарастить эту планку еще на 500 млн «бочек». Восстановление производства сырья наблюдается и в США, где после локальных минимумов выработка сырья выросла на 800 тыс. баррелей ежесуточно.

Выходит, те, кто сокращает добычу, действуют на руку тем, кто ее увеличивает. Переливаем из пустого в порожнее, топчемся на одном месте, толчем воду в ступе.

Правительство утратило контроль над курсом рубля. Попытки Минфина снизить закупку валюты практически до минимума (в текущем месяце интервенции сократились до 3,5 млн рублей в день, что фактически означает уход государства с валютного рынка) больше не действуют на курс. Мы ставим на валютную выручку. Однако это доход главенствующих в нашей стране госпредприятий. Многие частные фирмы за последние три-четыре года обанкротились. В 2016 году, согласно оценке Международного валютного фонда, почти 10% всех корпоративных кредитов были проблемными — отдавать их заемщики не в состоянии.

Так, может быть, вообще отказаться от действия доллара на территории России? Принесет ли это пользу? Будем укреплять рубль и надеяться на лучшее. Вряд ли поможет. Ни съездить на курорт, ни купить заграничную недвижимость. Компании, ориентированные на контракты с иностранными союзниками, это приведет к краху. Рубли нужны России, но все остальные уповают на доллары. Но у нашего кабинета министров уже не осталось возможности для маневра — никто не верит, что Минфин или ЦБ будут, как раньше, выкидывать валюту на биржу, чтобы поддержать курс рубля. Для них это бумага, а не инвестиционное средство. Поэтому придется копить средства в валюте, а отечественные денежные знаки постепенно превратятся в посадочные талоны или рекламные буклеты с обещанием счастливой жизни.

Санкции . Хроника событий

Источник: mk.ru

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