Правительство России решило убить рубль: санкции ему помогут

Правительство России решило убить рубль: санкции ему помогут

Стало понятно, почему чиновники пускают под откос курс национальной валюты

Правительство России решило убить рубль: санкции ему помогут
фото: Геннадий Черкасов

Падение курса рубля, которое продолжается уже два месяца подряд и принесло новый рекорд по своим масштабам за последние полтора года, стало приятным сюрпризом для российского правительства. Как известно, государство хранит свои финансовые резервы в иностранных валютах. Поэтому обрушение российской валюты (с начала июня курс рубля по отношению к доллару снизился с 56 до 60,6 рублей).

В итоге только в июля валютные «кубышки» Минфина, а это объемы Резервного фонда и Фонда национального благосостояния выросли на 83,3 млрд рублей.

Практически весь этот доход обеспечил рост курсов валют, в которые вложены резервы. Доллар за последний месяц подорожал на 1,6%. Евро прибавил 5,2%, пробив отметку 70 рублей. Таким образом только Резервный фонд принес государству прибыль почти в 20 млрд рублей.

Теперь становится очевидной политика экономического блока правительства, большинство руководителей которого настаивают на обрушении курса отечественных денег. Глава Минэкономразвития Максим Орешкин неоднократно говорил, что рубль переоценен минимум на 10%. О необходимости ослабить «деревянный» до 62–65 рублей за доллар говорили руководитель Минпромторга Денис Мантуров и министр сельского хозяйства Александр Ткачев.

Существует опасность со стороны ЦБ, который по заданию Минфина не устает проводить валютные интервенции на свободном рынке. Есть мнение, что с будущего года их объем вырастет примерно вдвое — с $15 млрд до $26 млрд. В результате негативное влияние этих операций на курс российских денег возрастет, и доллар может подскочить еще на 3–4 рубля.

Нельзя забывать и о внешнем давлении. Президент США Дональд Трамп подписал закон о санкциях против России. Этот документ уже одобрен обеими палатами конгресса Штатов. Он ограничивает объем инвестиций в российские сырьевые проекты. Американские финансовые смогут предоставлять российским банкам кредиты не более чем на 14 дней, а нашим компаниям — всего на месяц. Вложившие в нефтегазовые проекты более $5 млн в год частные и юридические лица (причем не только из США) , а также те, кто окажет профильные услуги, предоставит технологии или иную поддержку, подпадут по международные санкции. Правда, не совсем ясно, как эти финансовые претензии будут реализовываться.

Как полагает глава аналитического департамента УК «БК-Сбережения» Сергей Суверов, эта дипломатическая война идет на пользу российскому правительству. Правда, то же самое не скажешь о бизнес-пространстве и рядовом населении. На дешевом рубле правительство получает дополнительные возможности — закрыть дыры в бюджете и выплатить заработные платы государственным организациям, в том числе в медицине, военных службах и так далее.

«Тем не менее, если в дальнейшем инвесторы мирового финансового рынка встанут перед фактом очередного конкретного столкновения России и США, то иностранные магнаты выйдут из рублевых облигаций и иных ценных бумаг наших компаний, равно как и их рублевой номенклатуры. Тогда курс «деревянного» обвалится до 70-75 рублей за доллар. Государство в этом случае получит еще 100-150 млрд дополнительной прибыли. Только эти средства будут вынуты из карманов рядового населения нашей страны», — отмечает Сергей Суверов.

Читайте материал: Рано радоваться: недельная дефляция не спасет от роста цен

Рост цен и падение рубля. Хроника событий

Источник: mk.ru

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