Рубль от краха не спасет даже нефть

Рубль от краха не спасет даже нефть

Курс российской валюты определяют совсем другие факторы

Рубль от краха не спасет даже нефть
фото: Алексей Меринов

На этой неделе произошли сразу три события, которые могли бы стать положительным или отрицательным драйвером для курса рубля. Во-первых, встреча комитета по выполнению условий сокращения добычи нефти «ОПЕК+», во-вторых, совещание Федеральной резервной системы США по вопросу о возможном увеличении процентной ставки, в-третьих, заседание совета директоров ЦБ на тему дальнейшего снижения ключевой ставки в России.

Хотя все эти мероприятия считались потенциально важными для определения будущего рублевых котировок, по крайне мере, в краткосрочном периоде, трейдеры так и не получили желаемого ориентира для дальнейшие поведения на бирже.

Равнодушие рубля к этим событиям объясняется просто: каждое из них не принесло ничего нового. Делегаты встречи в рамках «ОПЕК+» подтвердили, что в полном объеме соблюдают нормативы прошлогоднего меморандума. Это равнозначно холостому выстрелу, так как подобные заявления рынок давно отыграл. Руководство ФРС и ЦБ, в свою очередь, пролонгировали нынешние уровни ставок, что также не стало причиной для конкретных действий.

С одной стороны, ничего странного. Когда ожидаемые и на первый взгляд важные события превращаются в банальное пустословие, то и обращать на них внимание не стоит. С другой стороны, такая реакция рынка говорит о том, что фундаментальные и значимые ранее факторы — изменение денежно-кредитной политики США и России или мировые объемы добычи нефти — потеряли былую актуальность.

К этому все и шло. Отечественные чиновники давно говорили о необходимости застраховать рубль от таких нестабильных материй, как стоимость сырья и международная экономическая конъюнктура. Российскую валюту специально снимали с «нефтяной иглы» и отпускали в «свободное плавание», чтобы ее ценообразование было естественным и органичным.

Сначала все получилось. В марте-апреле этого года нефтяные котировки ослабли, а рубль продемонстрировал уверенность и укрепил позиции. Отсутствие интервенций ЦБ, ранее в трудный момент спасавших нашу валюту от катастрофы, также больше не вызывают у трейдеров желание перекладываться из рублей в доллары.

Правда, потом «деревянный» снова начал падать. С начала лета его курс по отношению к доллару снизился с 56 до 59,5 рублей. Нефть же примерно за тот же период выросла в цене с $44,7 до $51,6 за баррель. Как не сожалеть о тех временах, когда российская валюта и «черного золото» двигались в одном направлении.

Отчего же сегодня зависит курс рубля? Можно сослаться на американские санкции, которые продолжают усложнять России жизнь и вселять неуверенность в инвесторов, ранее симпатизировавших рублю. Новая порция ограничений появилась на днях и взбудоражила европейский рынок, который косвенно попал в список пострадавших. Однако весной, когда никто не знал о дополнительных санкциях, доллар зашкаливал за 60 рублей и тогда все ссылались на нефть.

Все говорит о том, что с некоторых пор главными стимулами определения рублевого курса стали дотоле второстепенные и незаметные для стороннего глаза факторы. Большая их часть касается не внешних, а внутренних индикаторов России.

Например, перманентные налоговые периоды. Поскольку все фискальные взимания в нашей стране выплачиваются в рублях, интерес к ним со стороны крупных налоговых резидентов возрастает. Они меняют накопленные запасы долларов и евро, что приводит к укреплению «деревянного». Печально, что основные налоговые периоды происходят один раз в квартал и их благоприятное воздействие оказывается сиюминутным.

К отрицательным факторам можно отнести не вполне удачные экономические показатели. Так, по прогнозам Минэкономразвития, в III квартале этого года российский импорт на $5 млрд превысит экспорт. Счет платежного баланса уже находится в минусе и эта тенденция продолжится. Другими словами, в этом году россияне тратят за границей больше денег, чем иностранцы в России. Валюты в стране становится меньше, и это повышает курс доллара и евро.

Ну а центральным аргументом в пользу низкого курса рубля можно считать желание правительства ослабить национальные денежные знаки. Только при дешевом рубле, по мнению чиновников, начнется полноценное экономическое возрождение России. Тезис далеко не бесспорный. В любом случае, хочется посоветовать им, обрекая рубль на падение, не слезать преждевременно с «нефтяной иглы», а оставить ее про запас — как лишний козырь на случай, если в этой стратегии развития придется разочароваться.

Читайте материал: К осени доллар будет стоить 68 рублей

Рост цен и падение рубля. Хроника событий

Источник: mk.ru

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