Акции и рубль под давлением после ракетного удара в Сирии

Акции и рубль под давлением после ракетного удара в Сирии
© РИА Новости, Роман Галкин| Перейти в фотобанк

МОСКВА, 7 апр — ПРАЙМ. Российские акции и рубль попали под давление после ракетных ударов США в Сирии.

Дальнейшая динамика курсов акций и рубля будет зависеть от развития отношений между Россией и США в связи с событиями вокруг Сирии, говорят эксперты.

Рубль на этом фоне терял в первой половине дня более 1% против доллара и евро, поднявшихся до 57,1 и 60,8 рубля соответственно. Индексы ММВБ и РТС к 13.00 мск теряли 1,9% (2015 пунктов) и 2,9% (1115 пунктов) соответственно.

Нефть, превысившая уровень 55,6 доллара за баррель сорта Brent, не удержала российские активы от снижения.

Что дальше?

Дальнейшее развитие событий вокруг Сирии сложно предсказуемо, считает Антон Манаев из компании «Олма». «Возможно, фондовые индексы смогут на закрытие показать меньшее падение, чем в начале торгов. На валютном рынке актуальным сценарием в краткосрочной перспективе видится возможный рост и закрепление доллара выше 57 рублей», — оценил он.

Как будут развиваться российско-американские отношения, станет понятно уже через несколько дней по итогам визита в Москву госсекретаря США Рекса Тиллерсона, считает Станислав Клещев из » ВТБ 24″.

«Сирийский вопрос оказывает влияние, прежде всего, на рынок нефти и на оценку инвесторами российских активов (как из-за привязки к конъюнктуре рынка нефти, так и по причине ограничений, которые могут быть скорректированы в зависимости от развития отношений с Западом)», — добавил он.

Ночной удар США по авиабазе сирийских военных резко понизил шансы на нормализацию отношений США и РФ, пусть за последнее время они и так уверенно снижались, рассуждает Дмитрий Полевой из ING Bank.

«Очевидно, что геополитическое противостояние РФ и Запада продолжится. Однако просто так продавать рубль нерезидентов не заставить, учитывая сильные фундаментальные показатели РФ и улучшающиеся перспективы понижения ставки ЦБ (сохраняющие привлекательность ОФЗ)», — добавил он.

«Давление на рубль оказывает рост геополитической напряженности между РФ и США после нанесения сегодня утром США ракетного удара по Сирии. В текущем обстановке говорить о скором снятии США санкций в отношении РФ не приходится», — считает Сергей Кочергин из ГК Exness.

Основным фактором риска для российских активов сейчас является возможный рост страновой премии за риск, что может сдержать спрос на голубые фишки и ограничить динамику индекса ММВБ, говорит Илья Фролов из ПромсвязьбанкаPSBR.

Неожиданный удар США ракетами «Томагавк» по авиабазе правительственных войск Асада в Сирии поменял геополитическую картину и вызвал резкую напряженность на российском рынке, рассуждает Марк Гойхман из ГК «Телетрейд». Впервые американцы открыто действуют против сил, которые считаются союзниками в общей борьбе против ИГИЛ, запрещенной в РФ, это удар и по России — прямому союзнику Асада, считает он.

«Финансовый рынок не любит внезапного негатива, реагирует «бегством от рисков». Возросла напряженность между США и Россией. В таких условиях индекс Мосбиржи (индекс ММВБ) может упасть к 2000 пунктам. Пара доллар/рубль может вырасти к 57 и выше. Возможно, и инвесторы carry trade оценят возросшие риски вложений в российскую валюту, что приведет к оттоку средств из активов РФ», — добавил он.

Надежда есть

Несмотря на текущий негатив, некоторые аналитики видят позитивные перспективы развития событий, особенно если ракетный удар останется разовой акцией США.

Если игроки увидят, что эскалации конфликта между Москвой и Вашингтоном не произошло, то российские индексы смогут отыграть текущее падение, считает Евгений Волков из Росевробанка. «В этом случае высокая нефть будет на руку рынку, однако важно понимать, какой будет внешняя повестка. Это самый главный фактор, на который будут обращать внимание инвесторы», — добавил он.

Если рубль переживет бегство от рисков в первые часы торгов, то курсы валют к концу сессии вернутся к уровням закрытия в четверг (56,4 рубля за доллар и 60 рубля за евро), оценил Владислав Антонов из компании «Альпари».

Источник: 1prime.ru

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