Банк России может снизить еще дважды ключевую ставку до конца 2017 года

Банк России может снизить еще дважды ключевую ставку до конца 2017 года
—Анна Кокоревазамдиректора аналитического департамента «Альпари» Банк России по итогам очередного заседания ожидаемо оставил ключевую процентную ставку без изменений на уровне 9%. Решение регулятора не стало сюрпризом для рынка, в связи с этим реакция рубля опосредованная, тем не менее, решение мегарегулятора поддержит коррекцию, наметившуюся в рублевых валютных парах.

В среднесрочной перспективе рубль будет укрепляться. С технической точки зрения, в паре доллар/рубль вырисовывается фигура «голова и плечи» при пробое уровня 58,5 руб. можно будет констатировать смену тренда и более стремительное укрепление рубля.

Банк России признает повышение инфляционных рисков и в связи с этим проводит умеренно жесткую денежно-кредитную политику. Также регулятор не отрицает вклад непогоды и снижения урожайности в уровень инфляции. Тем не менее, ЦБ прогнозирует, что в ближайший месяц уровень инфляции останется в близи целевой отметки 4%. Мы же по итогам июля ожидаем дальнейшего роста показателя до 4,5-4,6% в годовом выражении.

Следующее заседание банка состоится 15 сентября 2017 года. Если до этого времени  ситуация выровняется, а инфляция вновь перейдет к снижению, мы не исключаем, что ЦБ возобновит снижение ставки. По нашему мнению, до конца года регулятор может снизить ставку на 0,25% еще дважды. Таким образом, на конец 2017 года ключевая ставка ЦБ РФ может составить 8,5%.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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