Банк России предпочтет снизить ставку в пятницу на 25 б.п.

Банк России предпочтет снизить ставку в пятницу на 25 б.п.
—Аналитики Sberbank Investment Research  

Для инвесторов главным событием предстоящей недели будет пятничное решение ЦБ по процентным ставкам. После комментариев Эльвиры Набиуллиной на прошлой неделе снижение ставки ЦБ до 9,75% выглядит почти неизбежным. По нашему мнению, регулятор предпочтет снова снизить ставку на 25 б. п., а не на 50 б. п. 

Очередная инфляционная статистика свидетельствует о том, что темпы инфляции в годовом выражении уже фактически опустились до таргетируемого 4%-го уровня. В этих условиях Банк России, вероятно, отложит более решительные меры по смягчению денежно-кредитной политики до июня, когда уже появится ясность по вопросу о продлении соглашения ОПЕК об ограничении нефтедобычи. 

Завтра российским экспортерам предстоит уплатить налоги на общую сумму более 650 млрд. руб., а в пятницу они должны перечислить в бюджет еще 460 млрд. руб. Они уже, вероятно, продали большую часть иностранной валюты, необходимой, чтобы аккумулировать эти средства в рублях. Тем не менее предложение долларов, судя по всему, сохранится, сдерживая давление на рубль со стороны иностранных игроков, и пара USD/RUB, по нашим оценкам, должна удержаться ниже отметки 56,50. Опубликованные в пятницу данные CFTC свидетельствуют о том, что чистая длинная спекулятивная позиция по рублю не изменилась — она стабильна уже несколько недель. С точки зрения теханализа, ключевые уровни поддержки для пары USD/RUB находятся вблизи отметки 55,50. Пробить эти уровни, с учетом текущих цен на нефть, будет довольно сложно.

С учетом крупных налоговых выплат мы полагаем, что в начале текущей недели пара USD/RUB должна удержаться около отметки 56,00, прогнозируют стратеги Sberbank Investment Research.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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