Банк России снизит ставку в апреле на 25 б.п., в целом за год — на 150 б.п.

Банк России снизит ставку в апреле на 25 б.п., в целом за год - на 150 б.п.
—Аналитики ВТБ Капитал В эту пятницу состоится очередное заседание совета директоров Банка России по вопросам денежно-кредитной политики. Участники рынка едины во мнении, что ключевая ставка будет снижена, однако представления о масштабе этого снижения расходятся.

Причиной отсутствия консенсуса послужили недавние комментарии председателя Банка России Эльвиры Набиуллиной – а вернее их различная интерпретация участниками рынка. Большинство опрошенных Bloomberg экономистов (как и мы сами) восприняли их как подтверждение тезиса, прозвучавшего на пресс-конференции по итогам предыдущего заседания, когда Набиуллина заявила, что считает более приемлемым снижение ставки в ближайшем будущем на 0.25 бп. Однако многие участники рынка в словах главы Центробанка услышали намек на готовность регулятора ускорить смягчение денежно-кредитной политики, вернувшись к снижению ставки на 50 бп. Мы, однако, по-прежнему считаем, что в эту пятницу Банк России снизит ставку на 25 бп, а в целом в 2017 г. ключевая ставка будет снижена на 150 бп.

На ежегодной коллегии Минфина в прошлый четверг Набиуллина заявила, что «Более быстрое снижение инфляции открывает нам пространство для снижения ключевой ставки уже в апреле. Я даже допускаю, что на ближайшем заседании Совета директоров, которое состоится через неделю, может быть дискуссия о снижении ставки между 25 и 50 базисными пунктами». 

После этого оценка рынком вероятности снижения ключевой ставки на 50 бп резко увеличилась, несмотря на то что, по сути, Набиуллина лишь повторила ту же мысль, которую она озвучила в ходе пресс-конференции, состоявшейся по итогам предыдущего (мартовского) заседания Совета директоров: «Я допускаю, что может быть решение и по 0.5… Но через некоторые время …, наверное, будет более … нормальным 0.25».

По сути, есть лишь два фактора, способных заставить Банк России изменить между заседаниями свой взгляд на оптимальную траекторию ключевой ставки: существенное расхождение появившейся макроэкономической статистики с ожиданиями регулятора или новый подход к интерпретации и ранее доступных цифр. Ни того ни другого за время, прошедшее с последнего заседания, мы не видели.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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