Бумаги Gilead Sciences получили поддержку от генной терапии рака

Бумаги Gilead Sciences получили поддержку от генной терапии рака
—Михаил Крыловдиректор аналитического департамента «Golden Hills — КапиталЪ АМ» Международный фондовый рынок за неделю достиг абсолютных максимумов 23328,84 пункта по индексу Dow 30 и 2575,44 пункта — по S&P 500 на фоне уверенности в увеличении прибыли американских компаний после снижения налогов в ближайшем будущем.

Индекс Dow 30 увеличился до 23328,63 пункта (+2,0% в неделю и +31,8% в год) вследствие роста United Health на +7,8% в неделю, JP Morgan на +3,8%, и Nike — на +4,1%. Индекс S&P 500 повысился до 2575,21 пункта (+0,86% в неделю и +22,8% в год) вследствие подорожания таких компаний, как AbbVie на +6,0%, IBM на +10,2%, и Adobe — на +14,1%. 

Можно также отметить снижение Apple на слухах о сокращении сборки iPhone 8, акций производителей товаров для личной гигиены после отчётности P&G, табачной продукции после новостей от Phillip Morris, разнонаправленное движение котировок авиакомпаний после не лучшей отчётности United Continental, а также уменьшение капитализации сектора биотехнологий после отказа Celgene от новых испытаний лекарства от болезни Хрона и сложностей Allergan с некоторыми патентами. 

Пара евро/доллар упала до 1,177 благодаря ситуации в Каталонии. Цена эталонного сорта нефти Brent достигла $57,9 за баррель после данных по Америке и комментариев ОПЕК+. Котировки золота упали до $1276 за унцию (всё равно +11,2% в год) после уменьшения опасений за Новую Зеландию, благодаря выборам в которой жёлтый благородный металл вырастал до $1291. Доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций США стабилизировалась около 2,38% на ожиданиях по председателю ФРС. 

В середине недели американские регуляторы одобрили первую генную терапию B-крупноклеточной неходжкинской лимфомы. Лекарство, с помощью которого рак во время испытаний вылечивался на все 100% в больше чем половине случаев, разработано и будет запущено в продажу Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) под названием Yescarta, для лечения обещает быть достаточно одной дозы стоимостью $373 тысяч. Много это или мало? Для увеличения выручки, так вполне подходит, в то же время значительно дешевле одобренной в августе терапии острого B-клеточного лимфобластного лейкоза от известной швейцарской компании Novartis AG (Nyse: NVS) стоимостью $475 тысяч. При этом Gilead пока не последует примеру швейцарцев и будет брать деньги за свой вариант терапии всегда, а не только при появлении результатов в течение месяца лечения, как Novartis. Остаётся добавить, что государственные агентства США частично компенсируют стоимость лекарств страховщикам.

Опять же, возникает вопрос о том, какую компанию мы выберем, швейцарскую или американскую? Вероятно, имеет смысл тратиться на только диверсифицированный портфель. Оба варианта терапии, возможно, окажут поддержку бумагам крупных международных компаний на биржах США, которые отличаются высокой ликвидностью. Генное лечение от Novartis и Gilead Sciences — шаг в будущее, основанный на химерных приёмниках антигена, которые перепрограммируют собственные иммунные клетки человека на распознавание и борьбу со злокачественными опухолями.

По оценке Jefferies, новое лекарство Yescarta сгенерирует для Gilead около $250 млн уже в 2018 году, ведь ежегодно в США, по оценке GILD, около 7500 пациентов с лимфомой. По данным американского общества исследования рака, в этом году 72240 пациентам в США будет поставлен диагноз «неходжкинская лимфома», и от неё умрут около 20140 человек, всего от этого вида лимфомы страдают около 4% раковых больных в Америке. В то же время, в защиту не входящей в S&P компании Novartis, следует сказать, что острый B-клеточный лимфобластный лейкоз — наиболее распространённая форма лимфомы среди американских детей. А в защиту российских ценных бумаг, естественно, нужно упомянуть о том, что на Московской бирже представлено не так много компаний, с помощью которых можно диверсифицироваться в область лечения рака, и не только потому, что, в нашем понимании, рак не лечится, а ещё и потому, что лекарство Yescarta лечит больше половины пациентов, но это всё равно только 51%, что по-прежнему не так много.

Производитель дженериков Allergan (Nyse: AGN) попал под понижательное давление после отзыва некоторых патентов, защищающих лекарство Restasis – второе по доле в выручке компании. Тем не менее аналитики Уолл Стрит видят цель по бумагам этой компании, которые ныне около $188, на уровнях около 252 долларов, хотя допускают даже небольшое снижение прибыли в 2018 году. По их мнению, отказ от продаж данного лекарства позитивно повлияет на бизнес компании в перспективе одного года, так как часть бизнеса, не связанная с дженериками, слабо нравилась инвесторам, зато они явно одобрят выкуп акций на 2 млрд долларов, который проведёт Allergan в ближайшее время. В 2018 году прибыль на акцию у Allergan прогнозируется на уровне 17,3 доллара.

В начале этой недели продолжится сезон отчётности в США. Отчитаются потенциально крупнейший (в случае слияния со Sprint) дискаунтер на рынке беспроводной связи T-Mobile (TMUS: прогноз 47 центов против прошлогодних 27), родоначальник биржевых фондов из Бостона компания State Street (STT: консенсус $1,61 вместо предшествовавших $1,35), производитель компьютерной памяти Seagate Tech (STX: 87 центов против 99 центов в том же квартале годом ранее).

В сфере макроэкономики инвесторы приходят к тому, что глава американского государства может совместить Пауэлла и Тэйлора в руководстве ФРС. Международная ситуация в Азии стала чуть тяжелее после учений у берегов Кореи, после которых КНДР пригрозила нанести по США невообразимый удар спонтанно, а США не исключили исчезновения Ким Чен Ына. ОПЕК+ достигла рекордного уровня выполнения соглашений по нефти в сентябре. Число буровых в США упало до минимума с июня.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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