Дальнейшее сдержанное укрепление рубля имеет шансы сохраниться

Дальнейшее сдержанное укрепление рубля имеет шансы сохраниться
—Ольга Лапшинааналитик Nordea Bank 

Доллар продолжил слабеть после неудачи команды Трампа по отмене Obamacare, потеряв по итогам минувшей недели 0.7% (DXY Index). Основными выгодоприобретателями от ослабления американской валюты стали EUR, JPY и XAU (золото). Рисковые активы на фоне этого сдержанно подрастают, однако скорее по инерции, т.к. скептицизм в отношении способности Трампа в целом провести обещанную экономическую политику все больше набирает обороты. Следствием этого может стать заметная коррекция на глобальных площадках, что уже заставляет инвесторов более осторожно занимать позиции по рисковым активам. По EURRUB ближайшими целями выступают уровни ~1.09.  

Рубль продолжает сдержанно укрепляться, несмотря на уязвимость нефти. Прошедшая накануне встреча нефтепроизводителей в рамках мониторинговой комиссии по сделке ОПЕК+ вновь оставила под вопросом продление соглашения по ограничению нефтедобычи на вторую половину года. При этом буровая активность в США сохраняется, число нефтяных буровых вышек по итогам недели выросло на 21 ед. Все это ставит новые вызовы для рынка «черного золота» в борьбе за уровни $50+/bbl. Примечательно, что не оказывает заметного влияния на российскую валюту и продолжающиеся покупки Минфином, а также снижение накануне ЦБ ключевой ставки на 0.25%.

Локально пик налоговых платежей и фактор окончания квартала поддержит спрос на рублевую ликвидность, что в свою очередь продолжит оказывать поддержку рублю. Одновременно с этим стоит отметить, что комментарии российского регулятора в отношении будущих шагов по ставке, оставляют фактор кэрри-трейда достаточно привлекательным. Т.о. дальнейшее сдержанное укрепление рубля (в пределах 2-4% от текущих уровней) имеет все шансы сохраниться, при условии, что нефть не свалится в негатив. Краткосрочными ориентирами для пары USDRUB выступят отметки 56.4/5-57.5.

ДЕНЕЖНЫЙ РЫНОК

Ситуация на денежном рынке несмотря на пик налоговых платежей остается достаточно стабильной. Недостатка ликвидности не ощущается, напротив, ставки на краткосрочную ликвидность снизились на 25 б.п. Сегодня предстоит к уплате порядка 700 мдрд. руб. по налогам НДС, НДПИ, акцизам, завтрашним днем и платежом налога на прибыль фискальная декада марта завершается. Краткосрочные ставки стабилизируются в районе 9.5-9.7%.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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