Данные по рынку труда США пока не позволят ценам на золото преодолеть $1260 за унцию

Данные по рынку труда США пока не позволят ценам на золото преодолеть $1260 за унцию
—Михаил Шейбестратег Sberbank Investment Research Рост уровня занятости в США повышает вероятность нового повышения ставки ФРС до конца года и оказывает давление на рынок золота. В пятницу котировки золота резко упали — данные по американскому рынку труда за июль оказались лучше, чем ожидалось. В результате унция этого драгметалла подешевела почти на $15 — до $1 255.

Последний раз этот уровень наблюдался в конце июля, еще до выхода менее позитивных, чем прогнозировалось, данных по ВВП США за второй квартал, которые обеспечили рост цен до $1 270 за унцию. Данные о том, что в прошлом месяце вне сельскохозяйственного сектора появилось 209 тыс. новых рабочих мест (на 29 тыс. больше, чем предполагал консенсус-прогноз Bloomberg), а средняя почасовая оплата труда выросла на 2,5% по сравнению с июлем 2016 года (аналитики, опрошенные Bloomberg, ожидали увеличения на 2,4%) заметно обнадежили участников финансовых рынков. Эта информация позволила инвесторам предположить, что Федрезерв все же решится в третий раз повысить ставку до конца года, и оказала давление на активы, не обеспечивающие процентного дохода. Сокращение разрыва между спросом и предложением на рынке труда, а также позитивная динамика заработной платы предполагают ускорение инфляции и более высокие темпы роста ВВП. Ранее именно отсутствие таких тенденций заставило ФРС США смягчить свою позицию по итогам последнего заседания Комитета по открытым рынкам.

Ожидающиеся соответственно в четверг и пятницу данные по индексу цен производителей и потребительской инфляции обеспечат кредитору последней инстанции дополнительную информацию к размышлению на тему о состоянии американской экономики и оправданности повышения процентных ставок, а также существенно повлияют на динамику рынка золота до конца августа. Опубликованные в пятницу данные по рынку труда пока не позволят ценам на золото преодолеть уровень $1 260 за унцию, поэтому едва ли можно рассчитывать, что цены вернутся к значениям прошлой недели и попытаются протестировать сопротивление на отметке $1 270 за унцию (если только не будет значительного обострения геополитической ситуации), говорится в обзоре Михаила Шейбе из Sberbank Investment Research.

 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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