День начнется ростом основных индексов

День начнется ростом основных индексов
—Богдан Зваричстарший аналитик ИК «Фридом Финанс» Сегодня перед открытием российского фондового рынка сложился умеренно позитивный внешний фон. Так, на рынке энергоносителей нефть марки Brent отыграла часть потерь, понесенных в пятницу, и сегодня утром торгуется в районе 55,7 доллара за баррель.

В пятницу в США индексы Dow Jones и S&P500 уже после нашего закрытия смогли отыграть часть потерь и снизились по итогам торгов лишь на 0,01% и 0,1%. Сегодня с утра фьючерсы на основные американские индексы прибавляют порядка 0,1%. В Азии, в отсутствии торгов на японских площадках, основным ориентиром для нашего рынка станет ситуация в Китае, где Shanghai Composite растет на 0,8%. 

В сложившихся обстоятельствах мы ожидаем преобладания покупок в российских бумагах в начале торгов, что позволит индексу ММВБ уже в первые часы подняться в район 2100 пунктов. В дальнейшем «быки» могут быть поддержаны открытием Европы, где поводом для позитивной динамики станут опубликованные утром данные по промышленному производству в Германии, показавшие рост на 2,6%, при прогнозе роста на 0,7%. Ближе к середине торгов настроения на рынках может изменить публикация индекса доверия инвесторов к экономике еврозоны от Sentix, который способен оказать существенное влияние на расстановку сил на рынках. Во второй половине торгов, в отсутствии важной макроэкономической статистики из США, основные фондовые площадки могут лечь в дрейф у достигнутых уровней, что скажется на активности игроков на российском рынке. Отметим, что в рамках сегодняшних торгов мы не исключаем попыток возобновления  роста в «черном золоте», что позволит нефти марки Brent отыграть отметку 56 долларов. Это также будет способствовать спросу на наши активы.

На валютной секции Московской биржи в начале торгов мы ожидаем консолидации основных мировых валют по отношению к рублю. В отсутствие заметных движений на рынке энергоносителей сегодня с утра, доллар и евро лягут в дрейф у достигнутых уровней. Однако в дальнейшем, даже при сохранении нефтью текущих позиций, мы не исключаем начала волны укрепления российской валюты, чему способствует приближение налогового периода, в преддверии которого экспортеры продают валютную выручку для создания рублевых резервов, которые пойдут на налоговые выплаты в конце месяца. Это приведет к росту предложения долларов и евро на рынке, а, значит, будет способствовать росту рубля. В результате, американская валюта может отступить в район 58 рублей. Также мы не исключаем и поддержки рубля со стоны рынка энергоносителей, где в ходе торгов возможны попытки восстановления.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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149 комментариев

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