До конца дня ожидается боковик по ММВБ и укрепление рубля

До конца дня ожидается боковик по ММВБ и укрепление рубля
—Тимур Нигматуллинаналитик ИХ «Финам» 

В пятницу после обеда основные российские фондовые индексы немного отыграли утреннее снижение: индекс ММВБ теряет 0,3%, опускаясь до 2045 пунктов, а его долларовый аналог РТС на фоне укрепляющегося рубля в небольшом плюсе и прибавляет менее 0,1%, карабкаясь до 1125 пунктов. Конъюнктура на внешних рынках выглядит неоднозначно: панъевропейский индекс Stoxx 600 снижается на 0,38%, а фьючерс на американский S&P 500 прибавляет 0,13%. Основное влияние на европейские и американские рынки вновь оказывает «фактор Трампа»: сегодня состоится голосование по законопроекту Obamacare, что позволит оценить перспективы реализации других обещаний президента. Сегодня ЦБ РФ снизил ставку на 0,25 п.п., до 9,75% годовых.

Решение Центробанка стало неожиданностью для участников рынка в целом, консенсус-прогноз предполагал, что регулятор сохранит ставку на уровне 10% годовых из-за нестабильности факторов, поддерживающих низкую инфляцию: крепкого рубля и вялого потребительского спроса. Тем не менее, непосредственно наш прогноз, несмотря на некоторые противоречия относительно динамики основных показателей, на которые обычно ориентируется ЦБ РФ – говорил о потенциале снижения ставки в диапазоне 0,25-0,5%. Даже если абстрагироваться от последствий чрезмерно жесткой политики регулятора в виде замедления экономики — тенденция грозила неисполнением целей ЦБ РФ по инфляции к концу 2017 года из-за того, что инфляция окажется фактически ниже прогнозируемого уровня. Реакция активов российского рынка на смягчение политики Банка России в среднесрочной перспективе, после короткого периода волатильности, предсказуема — вслед за снижением ставки рубль несущественно ослабнет к другим валютам, а ставки по вкладам и кредитам снизятся.

На курс российских облигаций и акций, особенно на бумаги банков и девелоперов, снижение ставки окажет в целом положительное влияние. Из российских акций в лидерах роста Полюс Золото (+2,6%), Русал (рдр: +1,7%) и МРСК Центр (+1,4%). В аутсайдерах Распадская (-2,4%), Транснефть (ап: -2%) и Татнефть (-1,9%). На валютном рынке Мосбиржи пара доллар/рубль теряет 0,3%, отступая до 57,3 руб., а евро дешевеет на 0,1%, до 61,9 руб. Валютная пара евро/доллар прибавляет 0,18%, взбираясь на отметку 1,08. 

После обеда не запланировано публикации значимой макростатистики. Из корпоративных событий интерес представляет лишь конференция менеджмента Магнита по отчетности за 2016 год. Скорее всего фондовый рынок (ММВБ) до закрытия основной сессии продолжит дрейфовать на текущих уровнях. По паре доллар/рубль ожидается спекулятивное снижение ниже отметки 57,1.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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