Евробонды РФ будут консолидироваться в ожидании сигналов от UST и с сырьевых площадок

Евробонды РФ будут консолидироваться в ожидании сигналов от UST и с сырьевых площадок
—Александр Полютованалитик Промсвязьбанка 

Во вторник российские суверенные евробонды умеренно подрастали в цене с возвращением торговой активности и на фоне снижения доходности базовых активов. Так, UST-10 опустилась ниже отметки 2,2% годовых. Этому способствовала слабая статистика в США: новое строительство домов в марте упало на 6,8% м/м до 1,215 млн, промышленное производство увеличилось на 0,5% м/м против ожидавшихся 0,7%. Рыночная вероятность подъема ставок ФРС в июне ушла ниже 50% до примерно 43%, хотя еще день назад была выше 50%. Нефть Brent вчера постепенно снижалась, опустившись ниже 55 долл./барр. В итоге, бенчмарк RUS’23 в цене подрос на 15 б.п. (YTM 3,47%), длинные RUS’42 и RUS’43 – на 37-42 б.п. (YTM 4,87%-4,88%). CDS на Россию (5 лет) вновь пошел вниз – со 171 до 168 б.п. Вместе с тем, фактор геополитической напряженности по КНДР и Сирии постепенно отступал на второй план, но новую неопределенность несут предстоящие в выходные президентские выборы во Франции и неожиданное решение премьер-министра Великобритании Т.Мэй о досрочном проведении парламентских выборов 8 июня (по плану выборы должны быть в 2020 г.). Все это может вносить волатильность в торги на глобальных долговых рынках.

Вчера стало известно, что 20 апреля стартует road show ФосАгро, по итогам которого компания планирует разместить долларовые еврооблигации с дюрацией 4 или 5 лет. Средства привлекаются для погашения части задолженности с плавающей ставкой и на общие корпоративные цели.

Сегодня с утра доходности UST-10 стабилизируются в районе 2,18%-2,19% годовых, нефть Brent также демонстрирует боковую динамику вблизи уровней 54,8-54,9 долл./барр., находясь в ожидании публикации данных по запасам и добыче нефти Минэнерго США. На этом фоне российские евробонды могут также консолидироваться в ожидании новых сигналов от базовых активов. UST-10, на наш взгляд, уже находятся вблизи минимумов по доходности. В ближайшие дни вновь будет выходить важная статистика в США: Бежевая книга (ср.) и индексы PMI (пт.).

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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