Инфляция в РФ продолжает ускоряться

Инфляция в РФ продолжает ускоряться
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка Главная причина ускорения инфляции — повышение темпов роста цен на плодоовощную продукцию.

По данным Росстата, рост цен с 18 по 24 апреля составил 0,2% (0,1% неделей ранее). В годовом выражении инфляция, по нашим оценкам, составила 4,2% (4,25% на конец марта). Напомним, что Э. Набиуллина неделю назад оценивала ее на уровне 4,1% г./г. Главная причина ускорения — повышение темпов роста цен на плодоовощную продукцию. По нашим оценкам, в конце 2016 г. — начале 2017 г. именно слабый рост цен в этом сегменте внес основной вклад в снижение инфляции. Также мы отмечаем повышенные темпы роста цен на мясную и молочную продукцию (занимают 25% и 8% в продовольственной корзине). Мы уже упоминали, что одной из причин ускорения инфляции могут быть и протесты водителей против роста тарифов «Платон». Наши оценки на основе суточного роста цен указывают на высокие риски ускорения инфляции в апреле с 4,25% до 4,4-4,5% г./г. Последний раз рост инфляции г./г. наблюдался в июне 2016 г. С учетом некоторого ослабления рубля ускорение инфляции является поводом для осторожности на предстоящем заседании ЦБ 28 апреля. Однако мы считаем, что пока серьезных поводов для беспокойства у ЦБ нет, и, учитывая, что Э. Набиуллина уже дала сигнал о предстоящем снижении ставки, она  все-таки будет снижена на 25 б.п. 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

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Источник: 1prime.ru

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