Инвесторы закладывают в котировки возможные итоги выборов во Франции

Инвесторы закладывают в котировки возможные итоги выборов во Франции
—Андрей Кочеткованалитик компании «Открытие Брокер» 

Снижение внешних рисков позволило российским участникам торгов сосредоточиться на покупках. Рекомендации наблюдательного совета Сбербанка (+0,88%) направить на дивиденды 25% от прибыли по МСФО продолжают поддерживать бумагу. «Юнипро» (-0,46%) сохранила прибыль по РСБУ в I квартале на уровне прошлогоднего показателя в 4,9 млрд рублей. «Магнит» (-0,45%) снизил прибыль по МСФО в I квартале на 8,5%, а выручку увеличил на 4,6% — до 266,98 млрд рублей. К середине дня лидерами стали: привилегированные бумаги «Транснефти» (+6,82%) и «Мечела» (+4,52%), «Дикси» (+4,57%), «Алроса» (+3,36%). После коррекции дивидендная доходность «Алроса» превышала 10%, что весьма привлекательно на фоне ожидаемого снижения ставки ЦБ РФ и падения доходности ОФЗ. Аутсайдерами дня стали бумаги «КАМАЗа» (-1,03%), Polymetal (-0,93%), «Соллерс» (-0,84%), «Кузбасской топливной компании» (-0,68%).

Рубль незначительно слабел относительно конкурентов. К середине московских торгов баррель Brent стоил около 2980 рублей. Однодневная ставка MosPrime снизилась до 9,84%, недельная – до 9,88%, а месячная – до 9,92%. После существенного скачка накануне, когда глава ЦБ РФ Э. 

Набиуллина не исключила снижения ставки на 25-50 базисных пунктов на ближайшем заседании, на рынке началась фиксация прибыли. Впереди довольно нервозные выходные в Европе. Нерезиденты явно опасаются негативного сценария в первом туре президентских выборов во Франции. 

Впрочем, если опасения окажутся излишними, то уже в начале будущей недели рубль может предпринять очередную попытку к укреплению, которая также будет обеспечиваться высоким спросом налогового периода. С другой стороны, рублёвая цена нефти вновь упала ниже 3000, что окажет сдерживающее влияние. 

Европейские рынки демонстрировали разнонаправленную динамику. После стрельбы в Париже французский CAC40 решил учесть возможную радикализацию настроений избирателей перед первым туром президентских выборов. Социологические опросы и аналитики пока убеждены, что проход центриста Эммануэля Макрона во второй тур гарантирует ему победу 7 мая. 

Однако опасения все же существуют, так как события прошлого года показали «цену» таким опросам. Впрочем, французские банки пока продолжили свой рост: Societe Generale +2,09%, BNP Paribas +1,96%. В остальном, европейская статистика продолжает демонстрировать устойчивый рост. Сводный PMI еврозоны подрос до максимума за 72 месяца и составил 56,7 пункта по сравнению с 56,4 в марте. В Германии сводный индикатор снизился до 56,3 с 57,1 в марте, а вот во Франции подрос до 57,4 с 56,8. В Великобритании розничные продажи в годовом выражении выросли в марте на 1,7% при ожиданиях 3,4%, но в I квартале сокращение составило 1,4%. 

Глава Total SA полагает, что котировки нефти могут продолжить снижение, так как выбываемые объёмы OPEC успешно замещаются ростом добычи в США и некоторых других регионах. Reuters указывает на косвенные данные, которые свидетельствуют о росте транспортировки нефти через Атлантический океан на 5,8% в апреле по сравнению с объёмами в декабре 2016 года. Министр энергетики РФ А. Новак пока отказался комментировать участие РФ в продлении соглашения по сокращению добычи, отметив снижение мировых коммерческих запасов. С другой стороны, нельзя оставлять без внимания ленты новостей. В Венесуэле беспорядки идут по нарастающей, но рынок нефти пока не учитывает возможное перерастание их в более масштабные столкновения. Тем не менее традиции революционности в Латинской Америке весьма сильны, а Венесуэла – это почти 2 млн бар.  ежедневной добычи. 

Ситуация на российском рынке достаточно спокойная, и есть высокая вероятность, что день будет закрыт в плюсе. Затем уже в понедельник стоит ждать реакции на первый тур выборов во Франции. С другой стороны, рубль проводит пятницу в ослаблении, что намекает на низкую терпимость к рискам. Фьючерс на американский S&P 500 подрастал в пределах 0,1%.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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