Нефть еще может упасть, даже несмотря на успехи ОПЕК+

Нефть еще может упасть, даже несмотря на успехи ОПЕК+
—Алексей Михееваналитик ВТБ 24 

Цены на нефть еще могут упасть, следовательно, может сильно упасть и рубль.

Главная новость последних суток на валютном рынке – это заявление президента США Трампа в Wall Street Journal о том, что доллар стал слишком сильным, и он предпочёл бы, чтобы ФРС сохраняла процентные ставки низкими. На этом пара евро-доллар в четверг в 22.00 Мск подскочила на 80 пунктов, менее чем за час, от 1.0595 до 1.0675. Однако позже евро-доллар отыграл большую часть падения, вернувшись на 1.0610. Если бы в США был консенсус относительно того, что доллар необходимо обесценить, то это произошло бы в течение 1 квартала или хотя бы в апреле, чего мы собственно тогда и ждали. Однако все, что в итоге мы увидели – это отметку 1.09. Теперь сценарий падения доллара просто исключен – в ближайшие месяц-два США поднимут порог госдолга и им снова придется агрессивно наращивать госдолг, забирая тем самым с рынка долларовую ликвидность, на падение доллара уже просто нет времени. Если хотя бы часть планов Трампа по стимулированию экономики путем инфраструктурных проектов и снижению налогов будет реализовываться, это приведет к резкому повышению дефицита бюджета, а финансировать его можно только за счет притока капитала. Плюс, учитывая, что мы ждем начала цикла сворачивания аппетитов к риску, доллар будет расти хотя бы на этом. Надо отметить, что вероятность повышения ставки ФРС в июне упала с 66% до 56% в последние дни, видимо, здесь заявление Трампа все-таки повлияло на рынки. Впрочем, мы и не думаем, что если на американском фондовом рынке будет сильное снижение, то ФРС сможет себе позволить дальше повышать ставку. Тем временем индекс Dow Jones падает третий день подряд, хотя пока размер падения пока совсем небольшой.

Если говорить про нефть и рубль, то на нефти наконец началось падение, по крайней мере, оно идет второй день подряд. Пока текущему падению объяснений на рынке нет, отчеты ОПЕК и Международного энергетического агентства на этой неделе скорее были благоприятны для нефти. Как следует из ежемесячного отчета МЭА, в первом квартале этого года мировые запасы нефти (запасы ОЭСР) немного выросли, на 38.5 млн. баррелей, несмотря на практически полное выполнение своих обязательств участниками соглашения ОПЕК+. Одиннадцать членов нефтеэкспортного картеля в марте выполнили условия соглашения о сокращении производства нефти на 104 процента. Спрос и предложение благодаря соглашению почти сравнялись, а во втором квартале можно будет ожидать превышение спроса над предложением, то есть как бы дефицита нефти, а на деле лишь сокращения мировых запасов. Однако факт заключается в том, что навес избыточных мировых запасов нефти никуда не исчез, и в случае изменения ожиданий относительно будущей динамики цен на нефть, эти рекордные запасы пойдут в рынок.

Рынком управляют ожидания, именно поэтому в начале 2016 года цены на нефть начали отскок задолго до того, как прекратился рост запасов нефти в мире (в США рост запасов до сих пор не прекратился). Рост цен на нефть от минимума продолжается уже больше года. Балансировка же (если верить МЭА) достигнута, и достигнута только сейчас. Отсюда следует вывод о том, что хотя действия ОПЕК смогли практически сбалансировать рынок, это не является сигналом того, что цены на нефть будут расти.

Нефть будет падать, если пойдет волна сокращения аппетитов к риску и изменятся ожидания относительно будущей траектории цен на нефть. Согласно кривой фьючерсов на нефть, на ближайшие 4 года рынки уже не закладывают никакого роста нефти. Если еще год назад, когда нефть торговалась по 44 долл., рынок закладывал на конец 2019 года цену в 52 долл., то есть разница была в 8 долл., то теперь этой премии нет, хотя запасы за последний год выросли. Так что цены на нефть еще могут упасть, следовательно, может сильно упасть и рубль.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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