Нельзя исключать движения пары доллар-рубль в сторону 58

Нельзя исключать движения пары доллар-рубль в сторону 58
—Андрей Кочеткованалитик компании «Открытие Брокер» 

По итогам торгов 21 марта, индекс ММВБ подрос на 0,26% до 2048,07 пт., а РТС – на 0,02% до 1121,63 пт. В первой половине дня российский рынок демонстрировал вполне уверенный оптимизм, но затем с трудом удержал плюс на закрытии. Всему виной нефть и негативные настроения на американских площадках, где индексы провалились более чем на 1%. В лидерах дня оказались бумаги: привилегированные акции «Транснефть» TRNFP(+3,44%) (компания увеличила прибыль по МСФО в 2016 году на 62,4% до 232,9 млрд рублей), «ТГК-1» (+3,31%), «МТС» MTSS(+3,05%) (сократила прибыль по МСФО за 2016 год на 2,1% до 48,5 млрд рублей при росте выручки на 2,1%), «Северсталь» CHMF(+2,31%), «ТМК» (+2,29%), «Роснефть» ROSN(+1,56%). На противоположном полюсе расположились: «МРСК Центр» (-3,87%), «Аптека 36и6» APTK(-3,64%), «ФСК ЕЭС» (-3,51%), «Мечел» MTLR(-3,08%). «Юнипро» (-2,18%) сократила прибыль по РСБУ в 2016 году на (-32,5%).

На валютном рынке вновь неспокойно. Кроме недовольства Минфина, спекулянтам пришлось реагировать на слухи об обсуждении вопроса заморозки курса национальной валюты. Впрочем, макроэкономическая статистика также предлагала рублю снизить обороты. Промышленное производство сократилось за февраль на 2,7%, ускорилось падение реальных доходов населения и оборот розничной торговли. Даже министр экономического развития заявил о том, что подобная статистика оказалась нерепрезентативной, так как, по его словам, Росстат перешёл на новую методологию, с которой ещё не разобрался. Естественно, что рынки не любят неопределённости, и к вечеру отечественная валюта заметно ослабла. В среду Минфин протестирует рынок размещением двух выпусков ОФЗ в объёме 40 млрд рублей.

Торги в США завершились существенным падением индексов. Администрация Дональда Трампа не торопится с публикацией «блестящего» плана налоговой реформы, который предполагал снижение корпоративных налогов. Соответственно, инвесторы потеряли терпение, тем более, что текущие значения рынка отражали наиболее оптимистичные надежды. Плюс к этому существуют опасения, что ликвидация Obamacare приведёт к снижению прибыли сектора здравоохранения. И, наконец, менее агрессивные планы ФРС по повышению ставки также ликвидировали излишние надежды в финансовом секторе: Bank of America (-5,81%), Citigroup (-2,6%), JPMorgan (-2,93%). Индекс NASDAQ начинал день вполне успешно на фоне очередного рекорда в бумагах Apple, но затем упал на 1,9%, так как вектор движения в акциях IT гиганта сменился, и они завершили день с потерями 1,15%. На этом фоне повышенным спросом пользовались защитные инструменты. Золото, иена и американские казначейские обязательства заметно подорожали. Индекс «Страха» подскочил на 9,96% до 12,47. Кстати, в последнем опросе Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 34% инвесторов признали американские акции наиболее переоценёнными из финансовых активов. Это самый значительный процент пессимистов за 17 лет. По итогам дня, индекс DJIA снизился на 1,14% до 20668,01 пт., а S&P 500 – на 1,24% до 2344,02 пт.

Негативные настроения сохранились и на азиатских торгах. Основные продажи также коснулись финансового сектора и сырьевых бумаг. Иена торговалась около 111,7 за доллар, что оказывало непосредственное давление на японские акции. Меж тем, экспорт из Японии вырос в феврале на 11,3% при ожиданиях 10,6%, а импорт – на 1,2% при ожиданиях 0,6%. 

Доходность по 10-летним американским казначейским обязательствам снизилась до 2,42%. 

К 8:45 (мск) индекс Shanghai Composite торговался на отметке 3240,94 (-0,63%) пт., Nikkei 225 – 19042,87 пт. (-2,12%).

Дополнительным негативом для рынков акций вновь стала нефть. Накануне American Petroleum Institute сообщил о том, что коммерческие запасы нефти в США увеличились на 4,5 млн бар. за прошлую неделю. На терминале «Кушинг» также наблюдался существенный рост запасов. С другой стороны, запасы бензина сократились на 4,9 млн бар., а дистиллятов – на 0,83 млн бар. Опрос S&P Global Platts показал, что на рынке ждут роста запасов нефти на 2 млн бар. Меж тем, Goldman Sachs в очередной раз предупреждает, что повышение эффективности американских сланцевых производителей ставит под сомнение усилия OPEC. Если соглашение по сокращению добычи не будет продлено на второе полугодие, то в 2018-2019 годах рынок вновь окажется перенасыщенным предложением. И немного о золоте. Котировки жёлтого металла вновь показали существенный рост, поскольку бегство инвесторов из американских акций направлено в защитные инструменты. Однако резервы SPDR Gold Trust остались на уровне 834,40 тонны. 

К 9:05 (мск) нефть марки Brent стоила $50,59 (-0,73%), WTI – $47,86 (-0,79%), золото – $1245,6 (-0,07%), медь – $5732,04 (-0,71%), никель – $10005 (-1,53%), палладий – $783,85 (-0,48%).

Фьючерс на индекс доллара подрастал в пределах 0,1% до 99,61. 

К 9:05 (мск) пара EUR/USD торговалась на уровне $1,08 (-0,07%), GBP/USD стоила $1,247 (+0,02%), USD/JPY – 111,54 (-0,21%).

Российский рынок начнёт день со снижения, реагируя на негативные настроения на внешних площадках. Кроме того, рубль также может оказаться под давлением из-за снижения цены на нефть, хотя в середине дня его поддержкой будут аукционы Минфина по размещению ОФЗ. Тем не менее, нельзя исключать движения пары USD/RUB в сторону 58.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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