ОФЗ: иностранные инвесторы взяли паузу

ОФЗ: иностранные инвесторы взяли паузу
—Максим Коровинстарший стратег ВТБ Капитал 

В отсутствие спроса со стороны иностранных институциональных инвесторов, к которому рынок уже привык в течение прошлой недели, доходности начали расти сразу после начала торгов. Российские участники рынка продолжали активно выставлять ордера на продажу: ОФЗ-26218 к полудню поднялся в доходности на 10 бп, другие длинные выпуски – на 8 бп, а среднесрочные бумаги – на 4–5 бп. Затем внимание рынка переключилось на первичный рынок.

На первый взгляд, результаты аукционов были довольно слабыми: спрос на ОФЗ-26216 был лишь немногим выше объявленных 13 млрд руб., а размещение составило всего лишь 4.1 млрд руб. За несколько часов до этого Минфину пришлось предложить рынку премию к доходности в размере 6 бп, чтобы разместить в полном объеме ОФЗ-26219 на сумму 27 млрд руб. Однако следует учесть два фактора. Во-первых, в момент проведения аукционов курс USDRUB держался выше 58.0, что в некоторой степени сдерживало потенциальный спрос иностранных инвесторов. Во-вторых, слабые результаты по ОФЗ-26216 отчасти объясняются тем, что российские участники рассчитывали получить от Минфина значительную премию, которую он предложит с целью разместить весь предлагаемый объем. Минфин, напротив, был готов поступиться объемом, но установить цену, близкую к уровню вторичному рынку

Спрос активизировался после начала американской торговой сессии, и в вечерние часы кривая несколько отыграла понесенные ранее потери. Длинные облигации закрылись выше в доходности на 4–5 бп, среднесрочные выпуски по большей части завершили сессию без изменений. ОФЗ-26210 и ОФЗ-26217 выглядели слабее, прибавив 6–8 бп. Наклон кривой увеличился, а спред между 10-летними и 5-летними выпусками, державшийся в отрицательной зоне с середины февраля, вновь стал равным нулю. Облигации с плавающим купоном закрылись на прежних уровнях или чуть ниже. Индексируемый на инфляцию выпуск сохранил позиции, показатель вмененной инфляции составил 4.75% (+7 бп). Российские ОФЗ в целом проигнорировали уверенное укрепление развивающихся рынков, где 10-летние локальные гособлигации Венгрии, ЮАР и Польши снизились в доходности на 10–12 бп, Индии – на 8 бп.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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