Permian в США, как кость планам ОПЕК+ помочь миру поглотить лишнюю добычу нефти

Permian в США, как кость планам ОПЕК+ помочь миру поглотить лишнюю добычу нефти
—Николай Подлевскихначальник аналитического отдела ИК «Церих Кэпитал Менеджмент» Задумки ОПЕК+ по стабилизации добычи и снижению навеса излишнего предложения нефти наталкиваются на амбициозные планы США. Минэнерго США в очередном своем обзоре представило прогноз роста нефтедобычи в стране. EIA полагает, что общая добыча сырой нефти в США в 2017 году составит в среднем 9,3. mb/d.

Планы на 2018 еще более впечатляют: добыча в среднем должна составить 9,9 mb/d. Тем самым даже средние уровни добычи должны превысить зафиксированные максимальные отметки 9,6 mb/d. Большая часть роста добычи нефти в США с июня 2017 года по конец следующего года будет поступать из плотных горных пород в пределах Пермского региона в Техасе (Permian), а также из Мексиканского залива.

Динамика, связанная с бурением в Мексиканском заливе, отличается от динамики бурения на континенте. Из-за продолжительности времени, необходимого для завершения крупных офшорных проектов, добыча нефти в Мексиканском заливе менее чувствительна к краткосрочным изменениям цен на нефть и определяется динамикой запуска долгосрочных проектов. В 2016 году там вошли в строй восемь зон, способствующих росту добычи. Ожидается, что еще семь проектов поступят к работе к концу 2018 года. В результате прогнозируется, что добыча сырой нефти в Мексиканском заливе будет расти в среднем до 1,7 mb/d  в 2017 году и до 1,9 mb/d  в 2018 году. 

Но главные надежды EIA связаны с ростом добычи в пределах Пермского региона. В данном регионе практически не происходило снижения добычи после провала цен нефти,  даже несмотря на ускоряющееся снижение добычи старых скважин. Так, EIA ожидает, что в августе добыча там вырастет еще на 64 тыс. баррелей в сутки. 

Дело в том, что ввод новых скважин происходит с повышенной эффективностью. Добыча на новых скважинах в пересчете на одну работающую буровую установку с начала 2015 года выросла в три раза. Частично это происходит за счет роста эффективности самих буровых работ, а частично за счет роста продуктивности самих скважин. 

Ожидается, что к концу 2018 года в Пермском регионе будет добываться 2,9 mb/d. В результате там будет сосредоточено около 30% от общего объема добычи нефти в США в 2018 году. Согласно июньскому месячному среднему показателю буровых установок от Baker Hughes, более трети буровых установок уже как раз работает в Пермском регионе. Именно там операторы смогли поддерживать положительный денежный поток из-за более низких издержек, повышения производительности. Так что бассейн Permian в США будет оставаться своеобразной костью, мешающей планам ОПЕК+  проглотить в пучинах соглашений лишнюю мировую добычу нефти.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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