После нивелирования перегретости рост рублевого индекса может продолжиться

После нивелирования перегретости рост рублевого индекса может продолжиться
—Илья Фроловстарший управляющий по исследованиям и анализу отраслей и рынков капитала Промсвязьбанка Мировые рынки акций продолжают демонстрировать достаточно уверенный прирост, что является следствием объявлением скорректированных параметров налоговой реформы на прошлой неделе, сильных данных по экономике США и ожиданий старта сезона корпоративной отчетности. Индекс развивающихся рынков MSCI EM восстанавливается после распродаж прошлой недели, хотя и выглядит по-прежнему достаточно уязвимо.

На наш взгляд, эта динамика может быть отражением опасений инвесторов относительно продолжения политики ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики в США, включая размеры активов на балансе ФРС и повышение ставки в декабре, а также рисков сокращения покупок ценных бумаги со стороны ЕЦБ. Кроме того, ограничивало активность отсутствие торгов в КНР. Динамика товарных активов в начале недели смешанная, как на фоне технической перегретости и перехода на новый контракт по Brent, так и в связи с постепенным укреплением позиций доллара против большинства мировых валют.

Российский фондовый рынок в понедельник снизился, но индекс ММВБ продолжает удерживаться в зоне технической перекупленности при поддержке все еще высоких цен на нефть, а также улучшения настроений на мировых площадках. Мы оцениваем потенциал снижения нефтяных котировок как ограниченный, но видим риск дальнейшего умеренного ослабления рубля. Это предполагает сохранение спроса на акции нефтегазового сектора и сохранения движения по индексу ММВБ в направлении диапазона 2100-2200 пунктов. Мы полагаем, что после нивелирования перегретости рост рублевого индекса может продолжиться.

Сегодня перед открытием торгов сформировался умеренно позитивный внешний фон, что позволит рынку начать сессию с повышением. Полагаем, что в первые часы торгов движение в диапазоне 2070-2085 пунктов продолжится, а в дальнейшем на ход торгов может повлиять развитие тенденции на рынке нефти и реакция рубля на ослабление других валют EM.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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