Потребительский индекс Иванова показал лучшее значение с 2015 года

Потребительский индекс Иванова показал лучшее значение с 2015 года
—Аналитики Sberbank Investment Research  Индекс потребительского уверенности, который немного опустился в IV квартале до -16% (от -15% в III квартале) улучшился до -10% в I квартале. Это лучшее значение индекса с 2015 года.

Основные выводы по итогам опроса потребителей следующие: 

— Отмечена положительная поквартальная динамика всех компонентов индекса, но наибольшее изменение коснулось оценки национального благосостояния за последние 12 месяцев. Мы объясняем изменение индекса низкой инфляцией и укреплением рубля, мы ожидали, что эти факторы окажут влияние в 4К16, но тогда они не повлияли на уверенность. Несмотря на это, беспокойство по поводу экономического роста по-прежнему высоко (33% в 1К17). 

— После замедления роста потребительских цен в стране беспокойство по поводу инфляции стало рекордно низким (47% респондентов отметили в I квартале 2017 года), и эта проблема заняла третье место. Коррупция осталась основной проблемой для беспокойства (59%, максимум за последние два года). Безработица занимает второе место, эту проблему отметили 55% (на 4 п.п. больше по сравнению с прошлым кварталом). И наконец, только 18% респондентов были обеспокоены обменным курсом рубля (на 2 п.п. меньше по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом). 

— Уровень безработицы среди наших респондентов увеличился до 12,1% по сравнению с 11,6% в IV квартале 2016 года. При этом доля лиц с неполной занятостью, но желающих работать полный рабочий день выросла до 9,0% против 8,1% в 4К16 и 7,9% год назад. В то же время больше респондентов отметили, что их компании нанимали новых сотрудников: 8,3% против 6,4% в 4К16. Кроме того, доля тех, кто утверждал, что в их компании были увольнения или что количество сотрудников сократилось, снизилась до 44,8%, что является самым низким значением индекса за последние два года (по сравнению с 48,5%, зарегистрированными в 4К16). В результате индекс чистого найма вырос с -42% в IV квартале 2016 года до -36% в I квартале 2017 года. 

— Наше исследование показывает ускорение роста заработной платы до 5,9% год к году в 1К17, хотя в основном это связано с эффектом низкой базы I квартала 2016 года. Поэтому мы ожидаем, что во II квартале 2017 года рост заработной платы будет меньше, так как база нормализуется. Тем не менее текущий рост меньше чем 6,7%, зафиксированных официальной статистикой в 1К17. 24 процента наших респондентов получили повышение или индексацию заработной платы на 6,4% с начала года, что свидетельствует о среднем увеличении на 1,6% для всей выборки. При увеличении заработной платы, только 18% дополнительного дохода будут направлены на питание (по сравнению с 37% доходов, которые в настоящее время тратятся на питание), 13% будет направлено на одежду и предметы домашнего обихода (в настоящее время 16%), а 12% будут сохранены (по сравнению с 7% в настоящее время). Коэффициент сбережений остался на уровне 7,0% в последнем квартале. 

— Доля Ивановых, чувствительных к уровню цен, уменьшилась с рекордных 77% во II квартале 2016 года и 74% во IV квартале 2016 года до 73%, но остается довольно высокой. Доля тех, кто старается покупать более дешевые товары, уменьшилась до 70% против 71% в предыдущем квартале. Доля потребителей, которые посещают магазины только ради промоакций, увеличилась с 44% в IV квартале 2016 года до 45% в I квартале 2017 года. В то же время наблюдалось снижение интенсивности промоакций, реализуемых розничными сетями, за исключением «Магнита». 

— Согласно нашему исследованию, пенсионеры тратят 28% дополнительного дохода на продукты питания (по сравнению с текущими 41%), поэтому недавняя индексация должна прибавить 6 млрд руб. к ежемесячному обороту продуктов питания.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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