Прислушается ли рубль к Банку России?

Прислушается ли рубль к Банку России?
—Константин Жуковскийэксперт Международного финансового центра Накануне глава ЦБ РФ Эльвира Набиуллина четко заявила, что регулятор может подключиться к Минфину и приступить к покупке валюты впервые за два года для пополнения золотовалютных резервов.

После трех сессий непрерывного роста рубль умерил пыл и умеренно отступает в парах с иностранными валютами. Первоочередной причиной утраты импульса служит ослабление напора быков по нефти, которым не удается развить недавнее восстановление цен.

Но дело не только в нефти. Накануне глава ЦБ РФ Эльвира Набиуллина четко заявила, что регулятор может подключиться к Минфину и приступить к покупке валюты впервые за два года для пополнения золотовалютных резервов. Причем интервенции могут начаться, по сути, в любой момент. Условием для выхода на рынок Набиуллина назвала достижение 4%-ного уровня инфляции. В апреле потребительские цены достигли 4,1%, и уже в скором времени мы увидим целевую отметку. Нельзя сказать, что заявления главы ЦБ оказали сильное воздействие на динамику рубля, но в более долгосрочной перспективе это будет фактором снижения привлекательности российской валюты, равно как и снижение ставки, хотя и постепенное.

Еще один сигнал наша валюта получила от министра экономического развития Максима Орешкина, который предупредил, что рост импорта может привести к ослаблению рубля в летние месяцы. Пока в этом году объемы импорта растут на 20-25%, и продолжение этого тренда вкупе с сезонным фактором приведет к внушительному дефициту текущего счета. И это также аргумент против дальнейшего укрепления рубля.

Но все это не означает, что власти заинтересованы в девальвации валюты и будут действовать агрессивно. Плавное снижение ставки ЦБ РФ будет действовать на курс валюты мягко. К тому же, не будем забывать о скором заседании ОПЕК, которая с большой долей вероятности продлит текущее соглашение еще на полгода а, может, и на более продолжительный срок. А это значит, что цены на нефть будут расти, по крайней мере, в среднесрочной перспективе. И этот фактор способен частично нивелировать действия властей, обусловив ограниченное и плавное снижение курса российской валюты в ближайшие месяцы.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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