Рубль с фундаментальной точки зрения недооценен примерно на 1-1,5%

Рубль с фундаментальной точки зрения недооценен примерно на 1-1,5%
—Максим Коровинстарший стратег ВТБ Капитал 

Минфин вчера объявил объем операций на открытом рынке в соответствии с переходным бюджетным правилом на следующий месяц: «совокупный объем средств, направляемых на покупку иностранной валюты на внутреннем валютном рынке в период с 7 августа по 6 сентября 2017 года, составляет 47.6 млрд руб. [против 74 млн руб. в рамках текущего периода]. Соответственно, ежедневный объем покупки иностранной валюты составит в эквиваленте 2.07 млрд руб. [около 34 млн долл.]». Рынок отреагировал на объявление довольно спокойно.

Что касается перспектив рубля, мы полагаем, что в ближайшие дни дивидендные выплаты будут по-прежнему оказывать давление на рынок, однако на следующей неделе связанный с дивидендами спрос на иностранную валюту, на наш взгляд, должен уменьшиться. Между тем, как мы отмечали ранее на этой неделе, размер чистой короткой позиции нерезидентов в рубле в последнее время увеличился до рекордного уровня, что, на наш взгляд, ограничивает потенциал укрепления российской валюты. Согласно нашей краткосрочной модели, сейчас рубль с фундаментальной точки зрения недооценен примерно на 1.0–1.5%. Однако если приток средств зарубежных инвесторов возрастет, курс рубля может даже превысить свой «справедливый» уровень.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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