Рубль умеренно растет к доллару и евро на поддержке нефти

МОСКВА, 25 авг — ПРАЙМ. Курс рубля днем в пятницу продолжает торговаться в узком диапазоне, предпринимая попытки роста вслед за ценами на нефть.

Курс доллара расчетами «завтра» к 12.30 мск снижался на 2 копейки – до 59,14 рубля, курс евро — на 8 копеек, до 69,76 рубля.

Октябрьский фьючерс на нефть марки Brent дорожал на 0,71% — до 52,41 доллара за баррель.

В узком диапазоне

В первые три дня текущей недели пара доллар-рубль консолидировалась в диапазоне 58,9-59,2 рубля, но в четверг пыталась на 7-10 копеек «проколоть» верхнюю границу консолидации, отмечает Михаил Поддубский из ПромсвязьбанкаPSBR. Объемы торгов контрактом USDRUB_TOM на Московской бирже с начала недели не превышают 2,25 миллиарда долларов в сутки, добавляет он. «Значимых идей в динамике рубля сейчас нет», — говорит аналитик.

В пятницу пара доллар-рубль торгуется в том же диапазоне, пытаясь укрепиться на росте нефтяных котировок. Мировые цены на нефть растут в пятницу на ожиданиях приостановки добычи нефти в Мексиканском заливе в США из-за урагана Харви. Трейдеры опасаются, что остановка добычи может продлиться и после урагана из-за сильных повреждений.

На пятницу приходится пик налоговых выплат месяца (НДС, НДПИ и акцизы на 500-510 миллиардов рублей), напоминает Поддубский. Это может способствовать локальному росту спроса на рублевую ликвидность в первой половине дня, считает он. «Однако сравнительно небольшие объемы выплат и комфортный уровень ликвидности на денежном рынке свидетельствуют, что, по всей видимости, влияние фактора налогов на курс рубля невысоко», — заключает аналитик.

Прогнозы и рекомендации

Поддубский из Промсвязьбанка ожидает, что пара доллар-рубль останется в ближайшие дни выше отметок 58,7-59 рублей.

В ближайшие дни динамика рубля будет достаточно сильно зависеть от реакции нефтяных котировок на ураган Харви в Мексиканском заливе, которые могут продемонстрировать некоторый рост, что поддержит рубль, считает Татьяна Евдокимова из Нордеа Банка. В пятницу пара доллар-рубль, вероятно, останется в узком диапазоне 58,8-59,3 рубля, полагает она.

В пятницу все инвесторы находятся в ожидании выступлений председателя ФРС США Джанет Йеллен и главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги, напоминает Владимир Зотов из Уральского банка реконструкции и развития.

«От того, какие выводы озвучат главы американского и европейского Центробанков, будет зависеть судьба мировых валют в ближайшем будущем. Если говорить о ситуации в США, то выходившая в августе статистика, была не особенно радостной. В частности, за июль сократилось количество выданных разрешений на строительство, а также снизились объемы продажи жилья на вторичном рынке. Кроме того, американский Федрезерв обеспокоен низкой инфляцией в стране. Вероятно, что на сентябрьском заседании ставку ФРС оставят без изменения», — комментирует он.

Ожидаемый торговый диапазон на пятницу: 59-59,5 рубля за доллар, прогнозирует эксперт.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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