Рубль ждет сигналов от доллара

Рубль ждет сигналов от доллара
—Роман Блиновэксперт компании «Международный финансовый центр»  Рубль начал последний торговый день уходящей недели с умеренного укрепления, продолжив притеснять доллар за счет его слабости и возобновления покупок на волатильном рынке нефти.

При этом подъем выглядит довольно скромно, что неудивительно в свете приближающихся ключевых отчетов из США, которые могут внести коррективы в текущую расстановку сил, не только в доллар/рубле, но и во всех парах с участием американской валюты.

В этом аспекте есть понижательные риски для российской валюты. Вчерашние показатели цен производителей приятно удивили, продемонстрировав рост в немалой степени за счет рекордного за два года удорожания бензина, что в свою очередь послужило следствием недавних ураганов в США. Погодный фактор способен оказать влияние и на потребительскую инфляцию, подтолкнув ее к росту. Но даже с учетом этого доллар способен неплохо укрепиться на выходе потенциально сильной статистики. 

С нефтяного фронта пришел оптимизм. Котировки Brent обновили максимумы октября, вдохновившись сильными данными китайского импорта, которые развеяли беспокойство некоторых участников рынка по поводу ослабления спроса со стороны КНР. Но текущий подъем котировок не внушает доверия, в любой момент на рынок могут вернуться продавцы, к тому же есть угроза фиксации прибыли перед  выходными на достаточно привлекательных уровнях. 

Таким образом, в краткосрочной перспективе российская валюта может растерять текущий потенциал и передать инициативу доллару, но только в том случае, если американская статистика порадует сильными цифрами.

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