Рынок акций США: сегодня Большой День корпоративной отчетности

Рынок акций США: сегодня Большой День корпоративной отчетности
—Павел Пахомовруководитель учебного центра Санкт-Петербургской биржи 

Три дня отдыха явно пошли на пользу. Участники рынка настолько соскучились по акциям, что еще на премаркете начали нетерпеливо «бить копытом» и покупать, покупать, покупать… И с самого начала основной торговой сессии мы увидели равномерный, неспешный, но достаточно уверенный рост по всему фронту бумаг. Считанные бумаги из всего списка акций, входящих в индекс S&P 500, по итогам дня закрылись в красной зоне. Уже тот факт, что акции компании Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI), потерявшие по итогам дня всего лишь 0,09%, вошли в десятку худших акций прошедшего дня, говорит сам за себя. 

В итоге, вчерашний оптимизм участников рынка вернул индексы на исходные позиции, которые мы видели в середине прошлой недели, до просадки рынка на фоне взрыва «матери всех бомб» в четверг. Единственно, что смущает во вчерашнем росте, так это итоговые обороты торгов, которые оказались минимальными в этом году. Поэтому говорить о том, что вчерашний рост будет иметь какое-то продолжение, пока очень рано.

Лучшими среди всех экономических секторов был финансовый. Инвесторы, хоть и с опозданием, но все же оценили их позитивную отчетность, и даже Wells Fargo (WFC), потеряв в четверг 3,33%, прибавил вчера фактически те же цифры +2,67%. Акции остальных банков уверенно шли вверх и вверх. Очень мощно смотрелся спрос в Bank of America (BAC, +2,67%) в преддверии выхода отчетности, которая должна появиться сегодня еще до начала торгов. 

И вообще, сезон отчетность стартовал с места в карьер, и инвесторы пока могут быть вполне удовлетворены его первыми итогами. Вчера, уже после окончания торгов, вышла отчетность двух весьма знаковых компаний — NETFLIX (NFLX, +3,03%) и United Continental (UAL, +2,46%). От первой всегда ждут только исключительных результатов, а вторая неделю назад «прославилась» громким скандалом с принудительной высадкой пассажира. Выход отчетности этих компаний может показаться некоторым несколько разочаровывающим — фактически данные по обеим компаниям были in-line, но… и там и там это были данные явно лучше, чем за предыдущие периоды. А прибыль у Netflix так вообще выросла более чем в 6,5 раз! А разве это плохо?

Ожидания рынка 18 апреля

Сегодня у нас — big earnings day, то есть Большой День корпоративной отчетности. И правда, один перечень компаний, отчеты которых мы сегодня увидим, внушает уважение. 

Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sacks (GS), Harley-Davidson (HOG) и United Health (UEEC) отчитаются еще до начала торгов. А по окончании основной торговой сессии мы увидим отчетность IBM (IBM) и Yahoo (YHOO). Что интересно, по всем этим компаниям аналитики ждут позитивных результатов их деятельности по итогам 1-го квартала. А кроме этого, уже сегодня на торгах участники рынка будут активно «переваривать» отчетность вчерашних «хедлайнеров» — NFLX и UAL.

Особенно интересно будет посмотреть на поведение инвесторов в отношении акций Netflix. Дело в том, что все ожидания по этой компании были связаны с круглой цифрой в 100 млн. подписчиков. Именно эту цифру ожидали увидеть многие инвесторы, хотя и сама компания, и аналитики говорили, что сейчас мы ее не увидим. И не увидели… Мгновенная реакция была, естественно, негативной — акции сразу же после выхода отчетности провалились более чем на 5%. Но потом, переварив всю остальную информацию (прибыль на акцию, выручка, перспективы на 2-й квартал), инвесторы поняли, что все не то чтобы «совсем плохо», а строго наоборот — очень даже хорошо. И уже к утру акции стали торговаться на OTC рынке в зеленой зоне, прибавляя к полудню почти 0,5%. Аналогичная картина наблюдалась и в акциях «многострадальной» United Airlines, которые из минуса на постмаркете к полудню ушли в уверенный плюс более чем на 1%.

И все же фон сегодня не очень благоприятный. Если Азия еще закрылась в невнятном «плюс-минусе», то вот европейские рынки после длинных пасхальных выходных открылись и торгуются в красной зоне, теряя местами до 1%. Нервозности добавляет и нефть, которая после сообщения о том, что компании сланцевой нефти и газа выходят сейчас по добыче на свои максимумы с 2014 года, пошла вниз и теряет в цене пока хоть и немного, но слишком уж уверенно. 

Короче, как всегда, мы увидим борьбу «светлых и темных сил». Однако на стороне темных сил сегодня фактор вчерашнего достаточно сильного и не вполне обоснованного роста. А по правилам нашего текущего безыдейного рынка, после такого роста должна быть остановка и небольшая коррекция. И поэтому вероятность небольшого снижения сегодня все же больше, чем вероятность продолжения вчерашнего роста. Даже величину этого снижения можно оценить вполне точно. В четверг мы упали на 0,6%, а вчера выросли на 0,9%. И чтобы вернуться на исходные позиции мы должны сегодня скорректироваться на 0,3%. Что скорее всего и произойдет. Если, конечно, после выхода позитивной квартальной отчетности банков эмоции не возьмут верх над холодным рассудком и не захлестнут быков новой волной оптимизма.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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