Рынок рассчитывает на еще одно снижение ключевой ставки ЦБ в конце апреля

Рынок рассчитывает на еще одно снижение ключевой ставки ЦБ в конце апреля
—Ирина Лебедевааналитик ФК «Уралсиб» 

Ставка MosPrime овернайт поднялась до 9,9%. Как мы и предполагали, с началом нового периода усреднения ставки на межбанковском рынке немного повысились. Также вчера, судя по всему, начались платежи в бюджет, срок которых приходится на понедельник, но банки пока не стремятся компенсировать снижение уровня корсчетов путем наращивания задолженности перед ЦБ или Казначейством. Это является косвенным подтверждением, что рынок рассчитывает на еще одно снижение ключевой ставки в конце апреля. Следует отметить, что в случае, если уровень корсчетов в ЦБ останется относительно низким, расчет на снижение ставок на межбанковском рынке после снижения ключевой ставки может не оправдаться. Относительное затишье в начале мая из-за праздников, когда активность на российском рынке падает, а ставки нередко растут, может еще больше усугубить ситуацию.

Несмотря на сохраняющийся дефицит бюджета, Минфин в этом году пока не использовал средства Резервного фонда. Дефицит бюджета пока финансируется за счет внутренних размещений и изменений остатков на счетах, оба этих источника финансирования дефицита не приводят к притоку ликвидности. Основной приток сейчас генерируется за счет интервенций Минфина на валютном рынке. Избыток ликвидности на рынке сформировался в значительной степени из- за расходования средств Резервного фонда в прошлом году, и этот избыток не был стерилизован в начале этого года. В целом, расходование средств резервного фонда в нынешнем году представляется неизбежным, правда, оно может оказаться несколько меньшим, чем запланировано.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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