Сегодняшняя встреча ОПЕК+ не преподнесет позитивных сюрпризов

Сегодняшняя встреча ОПЕК+ не преподнесет позитивных сюрпризов
—Денис Давыдованалитик Nordea Bank Нефтяные цены от сдержанного роста в ходе утренних торгов перешли к снижению на фоне первых сигналов/заявлений из Санкт-Петербурга.

Сегодня рынок всецело фокусируется на встрече министерского комитета по выполнению договоренностей по сделке ОПЕК+. Предварительные сообщения указывают на «олимпийское спокойствие» основных представителей соглашения. В частности, стало известно, что ограничение добычи нефти Нигерией и Ливией не стоит на повестке дня, и участники готовы предоставить возможность указанным странам выйти на запланированные мощности (Нигерия – 1.8 mn bbl/d, текущий уровень – 1.75 mn bbl/d; Ливия – 1.25 mn bbl/d, текущий – 0.84 mn bbl/d). После 01/04/18 (окончание действующего соглашения) планируется плавный выход из сделки в соответствии со спросом на рынке.

Т.о. можно отметить, что на текущий момент рынок не располагает какими-либо позитивными сигналами, которые способны подогреть оптимизм рынка в части цен (новых ограничений нет, продление соглашения – не базовый вариант). Возможно, цель — придать дополнительный оптимизм рынку — и не преследуется, как минимум на данный момент, т.к. низкие цены последних двух месяцев все же не благоприятствуют дальнейшей активизации американских сланцевиков.

Так, несмотря на то что производство в США на пике, рост числа буровых сбавил прежнюю скорость.

В целом же картина рынка продолжает выглядеть не в пользу устойчивого роста цен. Краткосрочно сезонные факторы поддерживают рынок, в то же время уровень запасов и здоровое предложение не позволяют смотреть с чрезмерным оптимизмом в будущее.

Вероятно, сегодняшняя встреча ОПЕК+ не преподнесет позитивных сюрпризов, при этом производители всевозможными способами будут убеждать рынок, что все идет по плану, и для большего эффекта нужно лишь время. На этом фоне ожидаем котировки Brent на отметках $47-50 в краткосрочном периоде.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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