Уверенность американских потребителей пока удерживает рынки от коррекции

Уверенность американских потребителей пока удерживает рынки от коррекции
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка 

Макростатистика по США вчера преподнесла позитивный сюрприз: значение индекса уверенности потребителей за март оказалось на 16-летнем максимуме (125,6 пунктов против ожидавшихся 113,8 и 116,1 в феврале). Это стало следствием улучшения оценки состояния рынка труда (31,7% опрошенных считает, что вакансий для устройства на работу избыточно, в феврале так думало 26,9%), а также уровня ожидаемых доходов (21,5% опрошенных предполагает повышение своего дохода в течение следующих 6М против 19,2% в феврале). В столь радужную картину не вписывается снижение инфляционных ожиданий (на 2 б.п. до 4,6% г./г. через 12 месяцев), а также низкие потребительские расходы. Не исключено, что данные содержат некий статистический выброс/ошибку, например, обусловленный существенным расхождением мнений между сторонниками республиканцев и демократов (публикуемый в пятницу отчет настроений потребителей может прояснить ситуацию). В этой связи стоит отметить, что значение индекса уверенности считалось по опросам, проводившимся до 16 марта, а значит, не была учтена неудачная попытка Д. Трампа отменить программу Obamacare.

Тем не менее, столь сильная уверенность потребителей смогла отпугнуть «медведей» на Wall Street, в результате американские индексы акций завершили день в плюсе (+0,7% по S&P 500). Судя по данным СМИ, администрация Д. Трампа переключилась на подготовку обещанной в ходе предвыборной гонки налоговой реформы, которая, как предполагается, будет нейтральной для бюджетного дефицита: снижение налога на прибыль компенсируется введением таможенной пошлины. Открытым остается вопрос, какой положительный эффект от этой нейтральной для бюджета меры будет для экономики (в выигрыше окажутся экспортеры тяжелой промышленности, а в проигрыше — розничные сети, автопроизводители, НПЗ, которые имеют высокую долю импорта в себестоимости). В этой связи налоговую реформу может постичь та же судьба, что и страховую программу (не говоря уже о том, что срок подготовки предложения в Конгресс затягивается до осени).

Как следствие, рост индексов акций в ближайшее время может смениться коррекцией. Также временным представляется и восстановление цен на нефть (до 51,8 долл./барр.), которое произошло из-за объявления о форс-мажоре в Ливии (экспорт сокращен на 300 тыс. барр. в сутки). Данные API указывают на продолжающееся повышение коммерческих запасов нефти в США.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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