В мае рубль может снизиться до 60 за доллар

В мае рубль может снизиться до 60 за доллар
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка 

Вчера представитель Минфина заявил в СМИ, что, исходя из текущих цен на нефть (50,7 долл./барр.,Brent) и курса рубля (57,4 руб./долл.), что соответствует 2910 руб./барр., дополнительные нефтегазовые доходы бюджета в 2017 г. составят всего 600 млрд руб. (= покупки Минфина — 10,5 млрд долл.). Напомним, что ранее, когда рублевая цена на нефть была в районе 3300-3400 руб./барр., А. Силуанов прогнозировал дополнительные доходы в 1 трлн руб. при нефти 50 долл./барр. (15 млрд долл.) и 1,5 трлн руб. при 55 долл./барр. (25 млрд долл.). Таким образом, получается, что чем крепче рубль (ниже рублевая цена на нефть), тем меньше покупки Минфина, т.е. механизм интервенций в ряде нетипичных случаев имеет не отрицательную (как изначально задумывалось, чтобы снизить влияние волатильности нефти), а положительную обратную связь.

Такие случаи могут возникать, например, при появлении большого предложения на продажу/покупку валюты, которое может сопровождаться притоком/оттоком капитала (например, из-за изменения настроений нерезидентов или спроса на иностранные активы резидентов). В 1 кв. такую ситуацию могла создать продажа Роснефтегазом валюты, которая была получена в начале года от продажи акций Роснефти в условиях высокого сальдо счета текущих операций. Но в обычных условиях механизм интервенций имеет отрицательную обратную связь: избыточное укрепление/ослабление рубля нивелируется сальдо счета текущих операций (при близких к нулю чистых внешних заимствованиях). Мы ожидаем, что во 2-3 кв. будут как раз такие обычные условия, в результате произойдет выравнивание курса рубля относительно фундаментальных уровней: при текущем курсе рубля и нефти (50-51 долл./барр., Brent) сальдо счета текущих операций опустилось бы до +1,5 млрд долл. в апреле, до нуля в мае и ушло бы сильно ниже нуля в июне (-5,5 млрд долл.). Чтобы этого не произошло, курс должен скорректироваться до 65 руб./долл. к концу июня.

По нашим оценкам, по итогам 2017 г. интервенции Минфина обусловят повышение средней рублевой цены на нефть с 2988 руб./барр. в 2016 г. до 3290-3350 руб./барр. При этом по причине уплаты налогов до конца этого месяца рубль может еще сильнее укрепиться (в то время как оттока валюты из-за прохождения пика погашений внешнего долга, по-видимому, не произошло, или все было рефинансировано, или использованы валютные активы). По нашим оценкам, в апреле объем покупок Минфина составит скромные 68 млрд руб. (~58 млн долл. в день), что еще позволяет курсу оставаться на уровне 58 руб./долл., но уже в мае вероятна коррекция до >60 руб./долл.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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