За прошлую неделю кривая ОФЗ поднялась на 10 б.п. из-за роста геополитических рисков

За прошлую неделю кривая ОФЗ поднялась на 10 б.п. из-за роста геополитических рисков
—Ольга Стеринааналитик ФК «Уралсиб» 

В пятницу на рынке рублевого долга наблюдалось затишье, поскольку большинство мировых торговых площадок было закрыто. Объем торгов в сегменте ОФЗ составил около 13 млрд руб. Больше всего сделок было зафиксировано во флоатере ОФЗ 29007 и в выпуске с постоянным купоном ОФЗ 26209 (погашение в 2022 г.), однако их цены по итогам дня не изменились. Тем не менее прошлую неделю российский рынок завершил ростом доходностей вдоль кривой ОФЗ примерно на 10 б.п.

Продажи рублевых госбумаг начались после ракетного удара США по аэродрому в Сирии и продолжались большую часть прошлой недели. После визита госсекретаря США Рекса Тиллерсона в Москву политическая напряженность несколько спала, что позволило покупателям вернуться в рублевые активы, а рублю – восстановить все потери, понесенные из-за удара по Сирии. ОФЗ все же немного скорректировались, но небольшая коррекция, как мы отмечали ранее, была необходима, поскольку рублевые госбумаги выглядели дорого на фоне десятипроцентного падения цен на нефть, которое мы наблюдали в начале прошлого месяца.

В ближайшее время рынок сохранит чувствительность к геополитическому фону и будет ждать приближающегося заседания совета директоров ЦБ по ставкам. Годовая инфляция продолжает замедляться, поэтому вероятность очередного снижения ставки 28 апреля на 25 б.п. весьма высока. Впрочем, ожидать бурной реакции на это в сегменте ОФЗ не приходится, поскольку кривая госбумаг давно находится ниже ставки репо, и в текущих уровнях заложено понижение ключевой ставки как минимум на 100 б.п.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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